User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday October 8, 2007 - 23:25:09 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - US Dollar: What to Look for in the FOMC Minutes


US Dollar: What to Look for in the FOMC Minutes

Monday, 08 October 2007 21:13:41 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist
• Euro Slips Back Towards 1.40
• Are the Commodity Currencies Finally Reversing?

US Dollar:  What to Look for in the FOMC Minutes
A delayed reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report as well as the market’s expectation for tomorrow’s FOMC minutes has taken the US dollar higher against every major currency today.  Even the New Zealand dollar, which was firmer against the US dollar for most of the day turned lower towards the end of the US trading session. Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes are from the September 18th monetary policy meeting, which was when the central bank lowered both the Fed funds and discount rate by 50bp each.  Although the credit markets have stabilized quite a bit since the rate cut and there have been no new blowups in the financial sector, the Fed’s reasons for taking the preemptive move could still trigger sharp market movements.  If thee Fed decided to deliver the larger interest rate cut not because the US economy needed it, but because they wanted to avoid making successive cuts, then that would lower the likelihood for interest rates to be cut at the end of the month and consequently rally the US dollar.  On the other hand if the move was taken because the Fed felt that the US economy had deteriorated so much that a 50bp Fed Funds and discount rate cut was necessitated, then that would be bearish for the US dollar.  We expect the market to react more significantly to the former rather than the latter because recent economic data including non-farm payrolls could give the Fed the luxury of waiting until December before lowering interest rates again.  Towards the end of the week, our focus will turn to trade, inflation and consumer spending.  The weakness of the US dollar should help to narrow the trade deficit while boosting inflation.  Consumer spending is the biggest potential market mover this week (it is not due out until Friday).  The strength of payrolls in September and the upward revision to retail sales in August suggest that retail sales could be stronger than the market is currently expecting.  Overall, it seems to be shaping up to be a dollar positive week.  

Euro Slips Back Towards 1.40
The Euro is slipping back towards 1.40 on the back of a smaller than expected rise in German factory orders as well as mixed commentary from ECB and IMF officials.  Despite the German Economics Minister’s comment that he is not losing sleep over the current level of the Euro this morning, recent economic data indicates that as much as some officials may try to deny it, the strength of the currency is indeed having an impact on the economy.  Factory orders rebounded only 1.2 percent, following the biggest drop in at least 16 years.  Although ECB officials seem to agree that price stability is subject to upside risks, ECB member Bini-Smaghi indicated today that if Europe wanted to act to weaken the strong Euro, they did not need to wait for the G7 meeting later this month.  Is he trying to say that the ECB may physically intervene in the Euro?  Probably not because the currency is already falling off its highs and Germany, the Eurozone’s largest member remains comfortable with the current level of the Euro.  Also, the ECB would far sooner verbally intervene in the before physically intervening. Meanwhile IMF Rato’s comment that the dollar is undervalued is also pressuring the EUR/USD.  Tomorrow we have more comments from ECB officials as well as the German trade balance and industrial production.  Both numbers are expected to be softer given the weakness in factory orders and the recent strength of the Euro. 

Are the Commodity Currencies Finally Reversing?
The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are all softer today due to the drop in commodity prices and broad dollar strength.  After hitting a new 23 year high overnight of 0.9034, the Australian dollar gave back all of its gains to end the day below 90 cents.  Although economic data was mixed with ANZ job advertisements falling and the AIG Construction PMI index rising, the strength of the Australian economy should be the envy of countries like the US who is still struggling.  The same can be said for Canada, despite the currency’s fall today.  Employment numbers were exceptionally strong on Friday, paving the way for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada.  As for New Zealand, house prices fell for the first time since the beginning of the year last month, but even that has only put a minor dent in the kiwi’s rise.  Whether this is a real reversal in the commodity currencies or another blip before further gains is contingent upon oil and gold prices.  If they have peaked, so will the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. 

British Pound Hit by Weaker Economic Data
The British Pound is weaker against the US dollar following mixed economic data.  Input prices in the month of September were hot, but output prices were weaker than expected.  This indicates that even though oil prices are driving up the cost for raw materials, these higher costs have not been passed onto factories.  Part of this may be due to the weakness that we are beginning to see on the factory level.  Even though the monthly growth rate of industrial production was stronger than expected, the annualized pace of growth slowed materially.  Overall, the latest data indicates the difficult situation that the Bank of England is facing at the moment.  Inflationary pressures remain high but economic growth is slowing. 

Mild Move in the Dow Leads to Mixed Performance in the Japanese Yen Crosses
The Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday in Japan last night, so there was no economic data released.  Tonight we have the Eco Watchers index but that is not expected to be market moving.  The big event this week is the Bank of Japan interest rate decision, yet even that may not cause any significant movements in the Japanese Yen since there is only a 3 percent change for a quarter point rate hike.  Instead, Yen traders should continue to keep an eye on the Dow.  Should the stock market resume its rise, we could see fresh gains in carry trades. The dollar could extend its gains against the Yen given the bullishness of last week’s non-farm payrolls release.  Major resistance for the pair is not until 119.

Daily 100807 a

Daily 100807 b

Daily 100807 c


Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist for



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105