Wednesday September 15, 2004 - 00:35:07 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for Euro vs U.S. Dollar 15th September 2004 Price: 1.2255
Resistance: 1.2270 ... 1.2294 ... 1.2308 ... 1.2340
Support....: 1.2240 ... 1.2220 ... 1.2200 ... 1.2160
Cautiously bearish to 1.2160-75
No break lower yesterday but also no rally above 1.2308 and we consider this keeps price on the defensive. Thus only a break above 1.2270 and preferably 1.2295 would cause us to reconsider and look for a spike higher above 1.2308 and towards the next resistance around 1.2330-40. However, if seen this should hold.
No break lower seen yesterday but we feel that the reversal from 1.2294 does put more emphasis on the downside. There is resistance around 1.2270-80 and while this holds we continue to prefer the downside. The 1.2220 level is the key to further losses and once this breaks look for follow-through down to 1.2175 at least and possibly 1.2160. However, we feel this lower area has chance to hold and cause a further test higher. Below 1.2150 suggests losses to 1.2110.
Elliott Wave Comments:
6th September 2004
The drop on Friday clearly disappointed but we have cautiously retained a bullish count looking at Friday's decline as Wave -b- of a larger three wave rally to the 1.2280-00 area to complete Wave (c) of a triangle pattern. This would then form a high for the rest of the year although Waves (d) & (e) would need to develop before the downtrend can resume.
Any earlier break below the 1.1986 low would imply that the triangle scenario is incorrect and would spurn immediate downside implying the 1.2385 peak had already completed Wave B and that we are in the midst of a five wave decline lower in Wave C that would have potential to the 1.1860-90 area at least.
9th September 2004
We are overall encouraged with the move higher and look for Wave -c- to reach wave equality at 1.2255 at least and quite possibly the orginal target at 1.2280-00.
13th September 2004
With the 1.2208-00 target acheived we feel this completes Wave (c) of the triangle and as such this now implies a Wave (d) low of around 1.2260 approximately. Thus we look for an erratic move lower over this week and probably next to this target area. However, it should be noted that the 1.2308 area should prove to be the high for the rest of the year.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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