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Tuesday October 9, 2007 - 21:36:09 GMT
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Canadian dollar rallies but falls short, bonds drop


Canadian dollar rallies but falls short, bonds drop

Tue Oct 9, 2007 5:05pm EDT
 By Frank Pingue
 TORONTO, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar made strides
against the U.S. currency on Tuesday, fueled by higher
commodity prices, but failed to make up all the ground it lost
on Monday, when the greenback rose on reduced expectations of a
U.S. interest rate cut.
 Canadian markets were closed on Monday for Thanksgiving
 Canadian bond prices finished lower on Tuesday as housing
starts figures came in well above market expectations.
 The Canadian dollar closed at 98.25 Canadian cents to the
U.S. dollar, or US$1.0178, down from Friday's session close of
98.18 Canadian cents, or US$1.0180.
 The Canadian dollar began the session at 98.78 Canadian
cents to the U.S. dollar, or US$1.0123, and while it
strengthened to the close, it could not reclaim all the losses
suffered on Monday, when the U.S. dollar rose on carry-over
from last week's stronger than expected U.S. jobs numbers.
 The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday, however, and the
Canadian dollar gained strength due to a rise in prices for
crude oil and gold, of which Canada is a major producer and
 "We saw the (U.S.) dollar weaken against most of the major
currencies so that basically generated an offer tone for (the
Canadian dollar)," said George Davis, chief technical
strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
 "Plus, the commodity backdrop was a little more supportive
for the (Canadian) currency today as opposed to yesterday when
all of us were off and commodities were under pressure."
 U.S. crude futures settled above $80 a barrel on winter
supply concerns, while gold prices pushed ahead given a jittery
mood on currency markets.
 With a light load of Canadian data due this week it is
expected that the Canadian dollar's direction will be dictated
by the U.S. dollar and commodity prices.
 "Commodities are starting to get a little more attention
and focus from traders," Davis said. "So price moves from crude
oil in particular, and the base metals, are going to get a lot
of attention and determine where we head."
 Moves in the Canadian dollar could be limited ahead of the
Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement on Oct. 26. In a
Reuters poll taken last week after stronger-than-expected jobs
data, Canadian primary dealers unanimously said they expect the
central bank will leave rates steady at 4.50 percent.
 Canadian bond prices turned lower across the curve as the
sole economic data released during the session showed housing
starts rose 19.6 percent in September to their highest level
since 1978.
 That number flew past analysts expectations and may help
decrease the chances of an interest rate cut by the Bank of
Canada any time soon.
 Canadian bond prices were also weighed down by the bigger
U.S. treasuries market, which slipped after the minutes from
the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting did little to support
the case for more interest rate cuts in the near term.
 The two-year bond fell 19 Canadian cents to C$99.70 to
yield 4.395 percent, while the 10-year bond dropped 38 Canadian
cents to C$96.26 to yield 4.481 percent.
 The yield spread between the two-year and 10-year bond
moved to 8.6 basis points from 13.1 at the previous close.
 The 30-year bond slid 32 Canadian cents to C$108.44 to
yield 4.482 percent. In the United States, the 30-year treasury
yielded 4.864 percent.
 The three-month when-issued T-bill yielded 4.05 percent, up
from 4.03 percent at the previous close.

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