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Friday October 12, 2007 - 14:45:26 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (12 October 2007)

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4160 level and was capped around the $1.4210 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high was right below the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.4280 to $1.4015.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the September headline producer price index rise 1.1% m/m, the largest climb since February, while core prices were up 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y. Headline producer prices are now up 4.4% y/y, the largest increase since June 2006.  Traders await upcoming consumer price inflation data to determine if wholesalers have been able to pass along this recent price inflation to consumers.   Other data released today saw September retail sales climb a more-than-expected 0.6% with the ex-automobiles component up 0.4%. Additionally, the mid-October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 82.0 from 83.4 in September.  In eurozone news, ECB’s Garganas hawkishly reported “risks to ending up with a higher-than-expected baseline inflation rate are considerable,.”  ECB’s Stark noted “We expect the inflation rate to remain significantly above 2% in the remaining months of 2007 and in early 2008, before moderating again.” ECB’s Weber added “If risks to price stability threaten to materialize, monetary policy must not lose sight of its primary mandate -- even if it can thereby no longer support the already robust economy, or even restricts it.”  It is clear that ECB officials have not decisively ruled out additional monetary tightenings.  Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-13 industrial output rise 1.2% m/m and 4.3% y/y.  uro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4120 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥117.70 level and was supported around the ¥117.15 level. The pair continues to drift higher as traders’ risk appetite continues to improve after the recent global credit turmoil.  Data released in Japan overnight saw September consumer sentiment tick up to 44.1 from 44.0 in August while September corporate bankruptcies were off 20.3% m/m. Also, the September domestic corporate goods price index was up +1.7% on the year, down from August’s +2.0% level and below expectations.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.73% to close at ¥17,331.17.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥116.40/ ¥115.65 levels.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥167.10 level and was supported around the ¥166.10 level.  The British moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥239.30 level while the Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the pair tested bids around the ¥98.90 level.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.5110 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.5057.  U.S. Treasury’s Kimmitt said “It's fair to say the Chinese agree with the goal of moving their currency to a valuation based on underlying market principles and fundamentals but the difference is on the pace.  We think they need to move considerably more quickly to a point of valuing their currency based on underlying economic fundamentals.” The 17th Communist Party Congress will be held in Beijing next week and People’s Bank of Governor Zhou is likely to be replaced.  Data released in China saw the September M2 money supply up 18.45% y/y and the September trade surplus narrowed to US$ 23.914 billion.  Also, September actual foreign direct investment was down 2.36% y/y at US$ 5.27 billion.

The British gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0355 level and was supported around the $2.0245 level.  Technically, the pair continues to orbit the $2.0335 level, representing the 38.2% retracement of the move from $2.0475 to $2.0245.  Dealers are citing strong M&A-related flows that have resulted in sterling weakness this week.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 2.0185 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6965 level and was capped around the ₤0.70005 level.




The Swiss weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1880 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1805 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from CHF 1.1760 to CHF 1.1895.  Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1885/ 1.1945 levels.  The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6820 and CHF 2.4125 levels, respectively.


A$/ NZ$

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9050 level and was supported around the $0.8950 level.  Today’s intraday high was near a multi-decade high and some chartists are eyeing parity.  Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8950 level.  The New Zealand dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the kiwi tested offers around the US$ 0.7675 level and was supported around the $0.7675 level.  The pair reached its highest level since 27 July.  Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7650 level.



The Canadian dollar extended recent gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9720 level and was capped around the C$ 0.9800 figure.  The pair established a new multi-decade low today.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 0.9860 level.


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