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Trade the News - U.S. Market UpdateDow +67 S&P +8 NASDAQ +31.5
- U.S. equity markets forge higher after PPI and retail sales data fail to ignite inflationary concerns, but do allude to a resurfacing of the Goldie-locks scenario. Traders seem to have shrugged off a higher than expected m/m headline reading, and focused on the softer than expected core reading for both m/m and y/y PPI. Also, hotter than expected Sep retail sales are being chalked up the higher gasoline sales that didn't necessarily show up in yesterday's SSS results. Expectations for another cut by the Fed at the end of this month have declined slightly with Nov fed funds future projecting close to 30% probability. The Jan contract now puts odds of a 4.5% fed funds rate by year-end at roughly 75%. Initially Treasury futures ticked lower on the firmer U.S. data but have since rallied back to pre-announcement levels with the benchmark yield holding above 4.65%. Gains in McDonalds +0.6% post strong SSS figures are helping offset losses in the Dow from General Electric -1.6% after providing Q4 earnings. Semi Cap-equipment stocks are strong after Samsung raised its Capex guidance. SOX +1.25% BEA Systems has jumped more than 30% after receiving an offer from Oracle. BIDU opened down substantially after more cautious broker comments but has rallied more than 6% from its worst levels. Some of the specialty metals names are under pressure after ATI -9% cut guidance. RNK trading in the UK dropped more than 15% after cutting guidance. U.S. names moving lower after cutting their outlooks include: CWTR -26% ABD -12% and WHQ -16%. Crude futures have been fairly quiet though they did pare some overnight losses ahead of the NY open when reports surfaced that Turkish PKK rebels were heading into Turkey. November crude remains above $83 and Dec gold is holding above $750.
- The USD remained on the defensive as the week ended despite better than expected US data on Friday. ECB comments from Constancio undermined the intraday sentiment for the dollar. Constancio noted that the ECB does not have any specific target for the EUR and that the nominal effective EUR FX rate has only appreciated 4.3% since its creation. He later added that the Euro zone interest rates remain at historically low levels and that the USD can encounter additional pressure from its current account deficits. EUR/USD remains in sight but below its all-time high of 1.4277 set back on Sept 30th. The EUR also received some additional momentum from alleged merger flows. Dealer chatter the Royal bank of Scotland continued to purchase Euros (sell GBP) to funds its purchase of ABN Amro. Dealers noting that up to EUR7B has been purchased. EUR/GBP again tested above the 0.70 handle on such flows. European fixed income futures dropped during the NY morning as ECB's Constancio reiterated that European interest rates remain at historically low levels and expressed concern on inflation above the 2.0% central bank target. Dec Bund futures dipped 37 ticks to test 111.70 level before consolidating ahead of the close.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 31 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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