User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Saturday October 13, 2007 - 00:21:21 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Will the Focus on Inflation and G7 Help the US Dollar Next Week?

 

Friday, 12 October 2007 21:31:57 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Euro:  Will We See 1.40 Before 1.4350?
• British Pound:  In for Some Action Next Week

Will the Focus on Inflation and G7 Help the US Dollar Next Week?
Today’s reports on September retail sales and producer prices were the most anticipated numbers of the week but to our disappointment, the US dollar barely reacted.  Even though these reports gave the Federal Reserve less reason to raise interest rates at the end of this month, overall strength contained underlying weakness. Consumer spending grew by the fastest pace in six months and sales excluding autos erased the prior month’s drop.  However even though inflation pressures are back with headline prices rising 1.1 percent after falling 1.4 percent in August, core prices grew less than expected.  Also consumer confidence fell to a 14 month low in October, suggesting that consumer spending could weaken in the coming months.  This may seem worrisome, but don’t forget that since the last Fed meeting where they cut both the discount and Fed funds rate by 50bp, the credit and labor markets have stabilized, the stock market hit a new record high and consumers spending remains steady.  So the pressure is off for the Federal Reserve to make another proactive move – we doubt that they want to create another bubble in the stock market.  Going into next week, everyone will be talking about inflation and the upcoming G7 meeting.  This speculation is likely to be positive for the US dollar because as we have seen today, inflation pressures do exist.  Fed officials have recently indicated that headline inflation could have a longer lasting impact than they initially anticipated.  Also, dollar weakness and Euro strength could be on the discussion table at next weekend’s G7 meeting.  Speculation will arise as to whether there will be official criticism of dollar weakness.  Given that any changes to the language in the communiqué would require approval by the US and the UK (the US’ ally) we don’t think this outcome is likely.  However unofficial comments around the G7 meeting have still triggered sharp market volatility and this possibility is exactly what the market may fear throughout the coming week.  In addition to CPI and the G7, we are also expecting the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing survey, the Treasury International Capital flow report, industrial production and the Fed’s Beige Book report.  Bernanke will also be speaking on the Economic Outlook Monday evening in NY. 

Euro:  Will We See 1.40 Before 1.4350?
In a move that should have been bullish for the Euro today, the ECB drained liquidity from the money markets.  Economic data was also firm with August industrial production quadrupling expectations while ECB member Stark continued to be optimistic about growth.  Yet the Euro did not rally, leading many traders to wonder whether the EUR/USD will see 1.40 before 1.4350.  Taking a step back, the monetary policy bias of the ECB and Federal Reserve are clear.  One central bank remains staunchly hawkish and refuses to talk down its currency while the other is trying to time its next rate cut and is basking in the benefits of a weak currency.  In the long term, this dynamic should be positive enough for the EUR/USD that we should see the currency pair hit fresh record highs.  However in the week to come, there is a lot standing in the way of further Euro strength. From the US, we have CPI and the G7, both of which have a greater chance of being dollar positive than negative.  Over in the Eurozone, we are expecting the German ZEW survey of analyst sentiment along with consumer prices for the Eurozone and producer prices for Germany, all which could skew to the downside.  As a result, we could see a more Euro weakness before continued strength. 

British Pound:  In for Some Action Next Week
The British pound will be in for some action next week with an extremely heavy economic calendar.  We are expecting UK consumer prices, labor market data, retail sales, third quarter GDP and the minutes for the most recent Bank of England meeting.  These reports will help to determine whether the Bank of England’s next move will be a rate hike or a rate cut.  Based upon this week’s hawkish comments from central bank Governor King, the latter is more likely even though we think most of next week’s UK economic data will surprise to the downside.  The strength of the pound should take its toll on consumer prices and the Bank of England minutes should express continued concerns about whether the BoE has done enough to calm their financial markets. 

Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars Continue to Power Ahead
It has been an amazing week for Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollar traders with the Australian dollar hitting a fresh 23 year high and the Canadian dollar hitting a new 31 year high on a near daily basis.  The strength of the trend in these three currency pairs is a testament to how much more money is made following the trends in the currency markets than trying to fight it.  The main reasons why these currencies have been doing so well is due to the rise in commodity prices; just today, oil prices hit a new record high.  The Canadian dollar will be in play next week with the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, leading indicators and consumer prices on the calendar.  We are expecting bearish numbers for the loonie, but will need to see USD/CAD bottom first before attempting to buy it.  The only pieces of data of consequence for the AUD and NZD are Australian import and export prices and New Zealand consumer prices.  

Carry Trades Will Continue to Track the Dow
With no important economic data next week, Yen traders should continue to keep an eye on US equities, but be careful of G7 risks.  European officials have indicated that currencies will be discussed at the meeting and as a result, the Yen and the Yuan may become scapegoats for politicians who need to go home having criticized some currency for their excessive weakness.

Daily fundamentals 101207 1

Daily fundamentals 101207 2

Daily fundamentals 101207 3

 

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

 
 
 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105