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Monday October 15, 2007 - 16:04:45 GMT
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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update

 U.S. Market Update

Dow -121 S&P -11 NASDAQ -20.5

- Equity markets begin the week giving back gains as bond yields approach some key technical levels. The Benchmark yield has climbed back to 4.7% looking ripe to test the downtrend line going back to earlier this summer, which could bring the 200-day into play. Expectations for anther 25BP cut continue to leak oil as the Nov Fed Funds now stands at less than 30% and the Jan contract as slipped below 70%. Traders will be sure to focus on rate expectations during a week that is expected to be chalked full of economic data the will include: CPI, TICS, Capacity Utilization, Beige Book, and Housing starts/building permits. Decliners are outpacing advancers on both the NYSE and NASDAQ with financial stocks leading the way. Citigroup is off more than 2% after earnings and a conference call leading wide widespread softness in the group. Crude testing $85 is also not helping today's cause. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is down nearly 1%. The higher oil prices across the board have led to some strength in the energy complex. XOM +1.25% HES +1. 6% SLB +1.3% SII +1.8% Other commodities are faring well with Gold and Copper up close to 1%.

- In currency trading, the overall trends of soft USD and JPY remained intact as market participants now brace for any alert for any G7 shift on currencies. In particular the FX market will zero in on any changes to the G7 ­communiqué that raise even the remote possibility of coordinated international intervention to support USD. Various central bank officials will certainly make remarks ahead of the G7 meeting scheduled on Oct 19 and 20th. The EUR/USD was in striking distance of fresh all-time highs as the pair consolidates above the 1.4225 level. IMF Chief Rato reiterated his long-held belief that the U.S. Dollar remains overvalued in regards to the twin deficit situation and lack of savings in the US. The IMF chief again noted that China should do more to balance its economic growth, such as continuing a flexible Yuan polices and boost China's domestic consumption. The USD/JPY saw decent two-way price action ahead of the 118 level hourly resistance level. Dealers noting that USD buy stops were building above the 118.10 area. JPY weakness was broad base in the session after the BOJ downgraded 3 regions in its quarterly economic assessment. Currency traders ignoring comments reiterated by ECB chief Trichet that FX traders speculating on JPY and currencies in emerging markets should be aware of the risks they are taking. USD/CAD again hit fresh 31-year lows as the pair tested 0.9710 level. Emerging market currencies are firmer as the USD/BRL tested 1.7970, USD/ZAR continuing its post S. African interest rate hike trend as ZAR strengthened to 6.70 in the session.

 

 

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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