Thursday September 16, 2004 - 01:57:50 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 16th September 2004 Price: 1.2705
Resistance: 1.2715 ... 1.2740 ... 1.2770 ... 1.2790
Support....: 1.2670 ... 1.2640 ... 1.2615 ... 1.2585
While remaining above 1.2615-40 we remain bullish to 1.2770-90 at least possibly 1.2845-55 once again
Dollar strength was seen as expected and tested the higher resistance at 1.2710-15. having reviewed the nature of the rally we feel there is room for further gains. However, while 1.2713 holds we feel there is a risk of a deeper correction back to 1.2640 at least, and some risk of seeing 1.2615. However, while this support area holds and a break is seen above 1.2713 we consider the stronger risk to be higher. There is resistance around the 1.2770-90 area which should cause a pullback. Any aggressive rally could actually see a retest of the 1.2845-55 area though this seems a little too much for today.
The move to 1.2713 has been of a nature that we feel reduces the chances of losses below 1.2600 again. However, while 1.2713 holds this morning we feel there is a good chance of a retracement lower towards 1.2640 at least with some indications of 1.2610-15 as a possible target. However, we do expect this lower support area to hold. Thus only below 1.2600 would refresh the bearish view for losses to the 1.2520-40 area once again.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th September 2004
Although it is possible to call the 1.2518 low on Friday the base of Wave -c- we feel that in a triangle structure this may be a little too high. With the shorter daily cycles still appearing to be lower the risk is that we should see a Wave x to the 1.2625-50 area which would then be followed by a second ABC pattern lower to the 1.2455-80 target to compelte Wave -c- of the triangle before Wave -d- commences higher.
16th September 2004
The rally yesterday was positive and we now consider the consolidation pattern as quite possibly being an ascending triangle which therefore confirms the 1.2518 low as Wave -c- and the current rally is therefore Wave -d- that should find a peak in the 1.2845-55 area once again. This should be followed by a Wave -e- that should remain above 1.2600-50 to act as a springboard for strong gains.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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