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Wednesday October 17, 2007 - 03:51:01 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY

 

Price:                             116.42

Resistance: 116.75 117.10 117.45 117.93
Support: 116.30 116.01 115.75 115.45

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: There appears risk of slippage but support is still strong between 115.75 and 116.30

Daily Bullish: We saw losses as expected but these have fallen below the 116.47 support his morning. This is likely to delay the next larger leg higher. We should also be aware of the chance that a slightly deeper move to 115.75-00 could well be possible. Thus, if we are to see any gains today we need to look for breaks of levels that will provide further gains. First is at 116.70-80 and if we see a break above here then look for the next resistance at 117.10 and then 117.45-55 – though I feel this may well hold today.
MT Bullish: Cycles continue to push the Dollar higher but it is slow progress at the moment. While the pullback has been deeper than expected look for 115.75-00 to support for an eventual break higher to 120.25. (17th October)
Daily Bearish: Breach of 116.44 this morning has taken price down to the next support at 116.30 but I somehow suspect this may give way to additional marginal losses. Key supports are at 115.95-00 and 115.75 and I feel these will be strong enough to support. Next support is then found at 115.49 and only below there opens stronger losses for 114.91 at least.
MT Bearish: No change in the MT view though it seems like we now need to allow for 115.50-75 to provide support. Thus only below 115.50 would begin to concern and cause additional losses. (17th October)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

17th October

This morning’s break below 116.47 makes the expanded flat Wave –b- break down and thus it would appear that 117.93 may well have been Wave –a- and we should also consider the possibility that 117.93 was actually Wave (a) of Wave (iii). Indeed, at this stage with the shorter daily cycle due to find a low next week this second scenario may well fit in better.

Either way the support levels are probably the same with the 50% retracement at 116.30 from where we have bounced this morning. We should perhaps give allowance for a 61.8% retracement at 115.90 which would probably cause a complex correction that would last for the coming week to the daily cycle low.

Ian Copsey

 

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