User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday October 18, 2007 - 21:44:34 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - EUR/USD: Is 1.45 Next?


Thursday, 18 October 2007 21:11:34 GMT Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Canadian Dollar: Battling $89 Oil and Weakening Economic
• Japanese Yen: Rising Ahead of G7

EUR/USD:  Is 1.45 Next?
The mighty greenback is no longer mighty after having fallen to a historic low against the Euro at the beginning of the US trading session.  Rising expectations for an interest rate cut has been the primary culprit for dollar weakness.  On Monday, the market was only pricing in a 32 percent chance that monetary policy will be eased at the end of this month, but now interest rates futures show a 70 percent chance of that happening.  Given the sharp shift in interest rate expectations, it is not surprising to see traders adjust their positions in the US dollar.  With one central bank at the brink of lowering interest rates again and another still warning of about raising rates, there is scope for further EUR/USD strength.  Now that the EUR/USD has broken its prior all time high of 1.4282, there is no clear resistance until 1.45 which is a psychological level.  The latest developments have resurrected talk of a recession.  We think that this is premature given the recent consumer spending and labor market reports.  This morning, leading indicators increased 0.3 percent, which was right in line with expectations.  Jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey weakened.  Shipments dropped in the month of October, which is a very rare occurrence while inventories also fell to the lowest level in the past 5 years. The deterioration in the manufacturing index suggests that the benefits of a weak dollar have been limited.  Risk aversion is still a problem for the markets as the spread between US treasuries and 3 month Eurodollar contracts continue to widen.  This spread is an indicator of credit risk therefore an increasing spread indicates increasing default risk.  Today, the TED spread surged to the highest level since the beginning of the month.  There is no US data on the calendar tomorrow which will leave the G7 meeting as the market’s primary focus (Read our Special Report on What to Expect from the G7).  Oil prices have also climbed to an all time high above $89 a barrel, which is weighing on the Dow.  Although gasoline prices remain well off their April highs, they can rise at a blink of an eye which is why traders are walking on eggshells.  When gas prices start to rise, there will be a ripple effect across the financial markets. 

Canadian Dollar: Battling $89 Oil and Weakening Economic
Oil prices continue to press higher but the Canadian dollar has not extended its rise.  Canadian economic data has been weakening and as a result, traders are having a difficult time figuring out which factor will have a more lasting impact on the Canadian economy.  Yesterday Canadian wholesale sales dropped 2 percent and today, foreign demand for Canadian assets dropped CAD$3.83 billion as foreigners sold off C$5.4 billion worth of Canadian stocks.  Although this could be related to the credit market crunch that hit the financial markets in August, the degree of the surprise leaves many traders wondering whether the Canadian economy will only get worse.  This morning, the Bank of Canada released their monetary policy report which elaborated on the downward revisions to their growth and inflation forecasts.  The bottom line is that they are worried about weaker US economic growth and the impact of a stronger than expected Canadian dollar.  Consumer prices are due for release tomorrow – falling inflation pressures will continue to prevent the Canadian dollar from following oil prices higher.  Meanwhile the sharp rise in gold prices has pushed the Australian and New Zealand dollars higher.  New Zealand visitor arrivals and Australian import and export prices are due for release tonight.  Inflation pressures in Australia are expected to be soft. 

Japanese Yen: Rising Ahead of G7
The one clear trend in the currency market aside from dollar weakness is Yen strength.  Recent comments from US and ECB officials suggest that the Asian currencies will bear the brunt of the blame for Euro strength and dollar weakness. For Europeans getting the Yen to strengthen against the Euro will to some degree help to fix imbalances.  Given that the US will not be in support of an official comment on US dollar weakness, the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan are perfect scapegoats.  The UK is siding with the US as indicated by the recent comments from Alistair Darling who has said that the “G7 really needs to concentrate on, perhaps, some of the longer term structural reforms that are necessary in the economies of the world.”  Therefore continued Yen weakness is the best thing to expect ahead of G7.

British Pound: Impressive Consumer Spending
Although US dollar weakness has been one of the major drivers of GBP/USD strength, this morning’s stellar retail sales numbers and stronger than expected money supply and mortgage approvals data are also a major contributing factor to GBP strength.  A tight labor market and the fifth consecutive month of retail sales growth explains why the Bank of England will be keeping interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.  Even though the UK economy has also been hit by financial sector turmoil, robust domestic demand alleviates the strain on the economy.   UK GDP is due for release tomorrow, growth is expected to slow, but recent data suggests otherwise.  

European Economic Data Remains Strong
The Euro hit a record high against the US dollar today on the back of dollar weakness and stronger economic data.  Despite all the claims that the French are making about the damaging effect of a strong Euro, the trade surplus actually increased substantially in the month of August.  Exports to the rest of Europe, Asia, Russia and OPEC were strong while exports to the US remained steady.  This is probably one of the main reasons why the ECB refuses to drop their hawkish monetary policy or intervene in the Euro.  German producer prices are due for release tomorrow.  Stronger wholesale prices reported last week puts the risk of PPI to the upside. 

daily fundamentals 101807 a

daily fundamentals 101807 b
daily fundamentals 101807 c

daily fundamentals 101807 d


Written by Kathy Lien, Currency Analyst for



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105