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Friday October 19, 2007 - 03:59:56 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF

 

Price:                            1.1687

Resistance: 1.1706 1.1751 1.1770 1.1800
Support: 1.1660 1.1621 1.1601 1.1584

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: I feel the chances are greater for a pullback to 1.1744-51 before lower to below 1.1600

Daily Bullish: Loss of 1.1740 provoked the losses to just 7 points below the 1.1668 target. I suspect that this 1.1661 low should cause a correction higher. We shall need a move back above the 1.1706 corrective peak seen so far and this should allow gains back to 1.1744-51 but I suspect this will cap. There is further resistance at 1.1770 but I don’t think we’ll get there. Thus any stronger recovery will need a move above 1.1775 in which case look for 1.1844 at least.
MT Bullish: The upside appears over for now. Only back above 1.1800 and 1.1844 would press the 1.1927 major resistance. In turn this will need to break to generate any meaningful and sustainable rally. (19th October)
Daily Bearish: The move below 1.1740 did indeed generate losses to the 1.1668 support and just a few more points. These is still further to go in this decline but I suspect that we should first see a recovery to the 1.1744-51 area and from there I will look for losses to move down below 1.1661 and through the 1.1621 low but then stall around the 1.1553-84 area. Any earlier loss of 1.1660 would imply direct losses to this target area.
MT Bearish: In line with the weekly cycles we are seeing the decline resume. This should dip just below 1.1600 before a pullback that could be quite complex before a final decline into year-end to the 1.1283 area.  (19th October)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

19th October

The 1.1893 high appears to confirm the end of daily Wave –iv-. Thus we should be in the process of seeing Wave –a- of Wave –v- now. The 1.1661 low should have completed Wave iii of Wave –a- and thus while Wave iv remains below the 38.25%-41.4% retracement between 1.1744-51 we should see losses in Wave v that are likely to break below the 1.1621 low and should end up around 1.1553-84.

Note that the 50% retracement in Wave iv is at 1.1770 but considering the depth of Wave ii this is unlikely to be seen.

I also note that a 76.4% projection in daily Wave –v- come in just below the 1.1283 low.

Ian Copsey

 

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