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Thursday September 16, 2004 - 17:41:04 GMT

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GFT Forex Market Commentary Thursday, September 16, 2004

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading (source:

The dollar rallied sharply on Wednesday as the stronger-than-forecast New York state manufacturing survey suggested that further strong economic reports are in store for the balance of the year. The rally also reflected the inability of the European currencies to make new highs in the previous session. The dollar should experience some minor pullback before attempting another rally into the end of the week.


The euro/dollar sank on Wednesday to the lowest levels seen in a week and this slide finally extricated it from Friday’s range. The decline was in response to the pair’s inability to break the top of a medium-term triangle in the 1.2300 area.

The sharp decline sliced through the support levels at 1.2220 and 1.2190, but held just above 1.2130. The pair should see a bit of the correction on the upside, but the successful penetration of this support would signal a decline to the nearby 1.2115 Fibonacci retracement level and maybe even to 1.2072. A further decline to 1.1990 is very unlikely at this point.

If the euro/dollar manages to hold above 1.2130 after all, then look for a test of the resistance at 1.2200.This level must hold if this decline is anything but yet another fake breakout. Should this level buckle, then look for a possibly tumultuous rally to 1.2309. Distant resistance remains at 1.2389.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yen made the expected recovery on Wednesday and closed higher after pretty much duplicating the trading range seen on Monday. However, it gave back a lot of its intraday gains and this suggests a mild decline first before the upmove can continue.

Any minor pullback should hold above the on-again, off-again support at 109.80. If this level gives way it will mean that the pair is back into its recent yo-yo type of market and it will test the strong support at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. This remains the key support to break, but there still is some interim support at 109.30. An unexpected break below 108.65 would target the nearby 108.50 level and then the pivotal support at 108.08.

Above 110.40, dollar/yen still has distant resistance from a Fibonacci retracement level at 111.00. An unexpected break above this level would then call to challenge the next resistance at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

Oscillators are mixed.

LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Sterling/dollar failed to add to its recent gains and made a collapsing decline on Wednesday. The slide owes to the general dollar strength on the day and to a comment from BoE’s MPC member Nickell that the UK housing prices are stabilizing. Following some minor recovery on profit taking, the pair should remain under selling pressure into Friday.

The first resistance now comes at 1.7940 and this level must hold on a closing basis if this downmove is to continue. If it fails, then the pound is back in a trading range and it will climb to1.7980. The pair then has a pivotal high at 1.8032 to deal with and an unexpected break above this point would call for a test of the 1.8064 level.

If the decline persists, as expected, then look for a challenge of the support at 1.7740. A break below this level would signal a slide to the pivotal low of 1.7706. Distant support level now looms at 1.7570.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc smashed the resistance in the 1.2640 area and closed above 1.2700. Some profit taking would be in order, but don’t keep your fingers crossed for an aggressive decline.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.2670 and a break below this nearby support would signal a decline to 1.2635. This is the most this pair should reach before resuming its upmove, or the upside is over. In the latter case, dollar/Swiss franc would fall to as low as 1.2550. Pivotal support remains at a distant 1.2520 level.

If dollar/Swiss franc manages to pad its Wednesday’s gains, then look for a further upmove to 1.2720 area. If it can vault this level, the pair would then likely attempt a further upmove to 1.2790.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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