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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update U.S. Market Update
Dow -201 S&P -20 NASDAQ -37.9
- CAT shaved their FY guidance following eps that was below expectations. MMM and MCD revenues were a little light of consensus expectations. Wachovia reported another disappointing quarter for a major US Bank and noted on their conference call that they have some $7B in exposure to SIVs. Traders continue to fear a repeat of this summer's liquidity crunch in debt markets, as well as a possible spillover of housing weakness that could lead to a more pronounced slowdown to growth. It is against this backdrop that money continues to flee equity markets for the relative safety of government bonds. The long bond is up another 1.25 points and its yield has dropped below 4.7%. T- bill rates have given back some 100 basis points since Monday pushing the TED spread (Difference between T-bill and LIBOR rates) back to August levels. Adding to today's equity slide is real weakness in the energy complex. SLB is off nearly 10% after a disappointing earnings report. The OIH trades down nearly 5% in sympathy. November crude tested $90 overnight but retreated back below $88 mid-morning. Google continues to dazzle as the stock is well off of session highs but still posting gains after another strong earnings report.
- The FX market is focused on the G7 communiquÃ© to be issued at the Washington DC summit after trading today to see if any new insights are provided in regards to the Group' s outlook on currencies, in particular the weak USD. With the Euro near the 1.43 level, market participants ponder if any direct reference will be made to Euro strength or USD weakness. In the past, the G7 states that the currencies should reflect fundamentals. Throughout the week, European and Canadian officials have talked openly about China's FX policy and the need for greater flexibility of the Yuan. The JPY was the main currency mover in today's session as credit crunch concerns returned to the front burner. The recent wave of poor US bank earnings throughout the past few days has increased volatility globally. EUR/JPY cross is testing the 163.70 level in the mid NY morning, USD/JPY has moved below 115. JPY is also firmer on possible tougher G7 language and a weaker US stock market.
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Trading Ideas for 26 February 2018
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 26 Feb 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales
Tue 27 Feb 2018
A 08:55 DE- Jobless
B 13:30 US- Durable Goods
A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony
Wed 28 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP
AA 13:30 US- GDP
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 1 Mar 2018
A All Day final Mfg PMIs
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Fri 2 Mar 2018
AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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