Thursday September 16, 2004 - 18:25:25 GMT
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POOR DATA STUNS GREENBACK
The SNB today raised its target rate for Swiss 3mth Libor to 0.75% from 0.50% previously, and moved its target band to 0.25%-1.25% from 0.00%-1.00% previously. This 25bp rate hike was fully discounted, and indeed further 25bp hikes at the next two meetings in December and March are already priced in. Off this the markets were unchanged heading into the tremendous data out in the States. U.S. CPI and payrolls were close to the expected and basically let the N.Y market down as far as expectations were considered. This sent the Euro higher about 20/25 points from 1.2150 to 1.2170 before settling in around 1.2155. Then came the Philly Fed survey that tends to stimulate the market every month, and this one did just that. In September this index fell substantially to 13.4 from 28.5 in August. Although this number still signals growth a slowdown of this extent was not expected by economists. This sent the Dollar lower against the Euro and the Euro failed to give back any ground post 8:30 data releases. Tomorrow brings the University of Michigan report at 10:00am EST.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING Euro has preformed well after the steep sell off on Friday. The 200hr moving average is at 1.2182 on a 60 minute chart after putting in a high of 1.2195/98 and remains above that as of this writing. There is trend line support seen at 1.2130/40 and resistance above the 1.2182 at 1.2220/30 in the near term. RSI is a positive 60.14 on a60 minute chart.
GAIN AN EDGE We look to buy Euro on a dip back to 1.2150 with a stop below 1.2110 with a take profit of 1.2210
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