User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday October 19, 2007 - 23:11:15 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - US Dollar: 90% Chance for October Rate Cut!


Friday, 19 October 2007 20:47:46 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist

• G7 Meeting: Clearest Trend is Yen Strength
• Canadian Dollar Hits 33 Year High, RBNZ Rate Decision Next Week

US Dollar: 90% Chance for October Rate Cut!
The price action in the financial markets this week is a testament to how quickly expectations and sentiment can change.  We started the week with nearly everyone in the market agreeing that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at the end of the month and now implied Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 90 percent chance of an October cut.  Taking a step back, aside from US consumer prices, the data released this week the US was mostly second tier, which means that they should not have been all that market moving.  So what caused the dramatic change in interest rate expectations?  Continued weakness in the housing market, disappointing earnings in the banking sector and a 550 point drop in the Dow (Monday to Friday).  With HSBC downgraded, Bank of America reporting a 32 percent decline in earnings and Wachovia reporting a 10 percent drop, the 20th Anniversary Week of Black Monday 1987 has proven to be as brutal on a point basis as many of the October crashes that we have seen in the past.  The rise in oil prices creates additional risk for an already vulnerable US economy and calls for a recession are returning.  More immediately however, we need to turn our focus to today’s G7 meeting.  The communiqué should be released this evening.  According to Dow Jones, the draft of the statement indicates that finance ministers will be calling for the Chinese Yuan to increase more quickly in value.  The Euro, US dollar, Japanese Yen and the Dow will probably not be mentioned in the official statement.  The biggest currency to be impacted will therefore be the Japanese Yen. Next week, we have more housing market data from the US as well as durable goods due for release.  The market’s primary focus will be on the following Wednesday’s October 31st FOMC meeting but don’t write off the potential for a continuation move in the equity and currency market if there are any additional surprises in the official G7 communiqué.

G7 Meeting: Clearest Trend is Yen Strength
The clearest outcome of the G7 meeting will be Yen strength. Not one of the Japanese Yen crosses have been able to escape the pressure of carry trade liquidation today since Yen is seen as the proxy for Asia, which includes China. The Chinese however are not very happy with shouldering the blame for US dollar weakness. Earlier this morning, an advisor to the People’s Bank of China said that the Euro’s gains are an indication of a dollar problem and they will become increasingly concerned if the dollar continues to devalue. Are they signaling potential diversification or liquidation of treasuries? The movements in equities continue to be a predominant driver of the Japanese Yen.  If there is follow through selling in the Asian markets, carry trades could see further losses.  Today’s sell-off in the Dow is the strongest since early August.  Next week, we are expecting the merchandise trade balance, consumer prices and industrial production.  The weakness of the Japanese Yen should help to boost inflation, exports and overall manufacturing activity.  However whether this will matter to Yen traders remain to be seen as more volatility in equities could easily overshadow surprises in economic data. 

Canadian Dollar Hits 33 Year High, RBNZ Rate Decision Next Week
The Canadian Dollar continues to rise and today we have finally broken through another milestone to hit a 33 year high against the US dollar.  Despite the fact that USDCAD fell from 1.06 down to 0.9950 in the month of September, Canadian consumer prices remain strong thanks to a tight labor market. Core prices grew by 0.4 percent last month while annualized headline prices increased from 1.7 to 2.5 percent. This indicates that domestic inflation must be strong if consumer prices are still rising despite the counteracting effects of a strong currency.   Oil prices also hit $90 a barrel today which is continuing to fuel gains in the loonie even though prices have since retraced.  Canadian retail sales are the only piece of market moving CAD data on the calendar next week.  Given the sharp drop in wholesale sales, we also expect a downward surprise in retail sales.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars did not join in the CAD’s rally today.  In fact, they are down sharply particularly against the Japanese Yen.  Next week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be meeting to decide on interest rates while Australia will be releasing consumer prices. 

Euro: Another Record High, Further Gains in Store
The Euro climbed to another record high today despite weaker German producer prices.  Unlike the French, the Germans continue to be very comfortable with the level of their currency as well economic growth.  Today, the German Finance Ministry said in its monthly report that the available economic indicators suggest that the upswing remains intact and the financial market turbulence has not appreciable burdened the economy.  This will be an important perspective to keep in mind ahead of next week’s German IFO report.  The stability of analyst sentiment and the firmness of Eurozone exports could keep businesses optimistic, which would help to drive further Euro gains.

British Pound: Strong Economic Continues to Take the Currency Higher
The British pound is one of the strongest currencies in the foreign exchange market today.  Better than expected third quarter GDP growth and the August index of services sent the currency pair to a 2 month high.  We have had nothing but firm economic data from the UK this entire week, which means that the Bank of England will keep interest rates steady for the remainder of the year.  Next week, we are only expecting the CBI industrial trends report, Nationwide house prices and BBA mortgage approvals.  Continued strength in economic data could take the British pound back to its July highs against the US dollar.

daily101907 1

daily101907 2


Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist for



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105