Friday September 17, 2004 - 00:48:42 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 17th September 2004 Price: 1.2685
Resistance: 1.2710 ... 1.2744 ... 1.2770 ... 1.2790
Support....: 1.2660 ... 1.2630 ... 1.2605 ... 1.2570
While remaining above 1.2615-30 we remain bullish to 1.2770-90 at least possibly 1.2845-55 once again
We were slightly surprised with the spike to 1.2744 but the correction from there has moved down nicely towards the support area indicated yesterday. We seen support between 1.2610-30 and feel this will continue to support today to trigger gains back above 1.2710 and then through to 1.2790 at least. If an aggressive move is seen then a fuller test of 1.2845-55 is possible but should hold.
The decline from the spike to 1.2744 has reached 1.2650 thus far. While we are more bullish on the day we consider the greater risk in early trading is for price to remain below 1.2710 and for a drift down to 1.2630. There is also support at 1.2610 but only a clean break below this area brings further losses. Next support is at 1.2545.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th September 2004
Although it is possible to call the 1.2518 low on Friday the base of Wave -c- we feel that in a triangle structure this may be a little too high. With the shorter daily cycles still appearing to be lower the risk is that we should see a Wave x to the 1.2625-50 area which would then be followed by a second ABC pattern lower to the 1.2455-80 target to compelte Wave -c- of the triangle before Wave -d- commences higher.
16th September 2004
The rally yesterday was positive and we now consider the consolidation pattern as quite possibly being an ascending triangle which therefore confirms the 1.2518 low as Wave -c- and the current rally is therefore Wave -d- that should find a peak in the 1.2845-55 area once again. This should be followed by a Wave -e- that should remain above 1.2600-50 to act as a springboard for strong gains.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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