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Friday September 17, 2004 - 09:41:46 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 09-17-04

No Direction

As our technical brethren have repeatedly written, every chart of the majors is compressing to a point of practical standstill. In the past two weeks the EUR/USD range narrowed to less than 200 points bouncing between 2250-2050. The yen meanwhile traded even tighter - trapped between 109 and 110. Even sterling which dropped approximately 700 points in the last two weeks of August has been contained between ever tightening boundaries of 7950-7750. Summer doldrums were supposed to be over. What’s going on?

Fundamentally not much. We’ve entered a period global slowdown which has exposed each region’s weakness and forced many investors to the sidelines to await some economic clarity. Presently, the FX market is clearly in the control of purely speculative flow which is highly reactive to every economic release of the moment. As we suspected, the dollar did indeed unwind its gains against the euro yesterday, although the culprit was not the TIC data but the weaker than expected Philly Fed report. Regardless of the catalyst, the end result was the same – the pair rallied right back to where it started two days before. Range trading continues and only becomes narrower with each passing day.

With a very light calendar we do not anticipate much volatility today unless the U of M Consumer Confidence report surprises wildly to the upside or the downside. Dealers are already positioning for next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting where a 25bp rate hike to 1.75% is expected. More importantly the market will focus on the wording of the Fed announcement to gauge its near term policy intentions. However, given the recent contradictory statements from Fed officials, the Fed seems as perplexed as the market about the direction of the economy. The clear cut resolution of currency prices that so many market players eagerly await may yet be a long way off.

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR trades tight around 2200 but with upward bias
- JPY pokes through 110 yet again ahead of Monday’s holiday and Tuesday’s FOMC
- GBP consolidates around 7940 maintaining the rally gains
- CHF dormant below 2700

Upcoming Events

12:00GMT – (8:00 AM EST) CAD Consumer Price Index m/m (August) Expected at 0.2%, Previous -0.1%
12:00GMT – (8:00 AM EST) CAD Consumer Price Index y/y (August) Expected at 2.1%, Previous 2.3%
12:00GMT – (8:00 AM EST) CAD CPI ex-core m/m (August) Expected at 0.2%, Previous 0.2%
12:00GMT – (8:00 AM EST) CAD CPI ex-core y/y (August) Expected at 1.9%, Previous 1.9%
12:00GMT – (8:00 AM EST) CAD LEI m/m (August) Expected at 0.6%, Previous 0.6%

13:50GMT – (9:50 AM EST) USD U of M Confidence (September) Expected at 96.7, Previous 95.9

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Mon 23 Apr 2018
A All Day- Flash PMIs
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Apr 2018
AA 01:30 AU- CPI
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- CB Confidence
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
Wed 25 Apr 2018
AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Apr 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 27 Apr 2018
AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
A 08:00 DE- Employment
A 08:30 GB- GDP
A 14:00 US- University of Michigan


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