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Tuesday October 23, 2007 - 11:48:28 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
USD rises sharply against major currencies; commodity prices fall
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
The USD posted a huge gain against the Euro and British Pound in yesterday's session even though the G7 statement clearly suggested that the Euro-zone was comfortable with current Euro levels. The ECB does, however, point towards growth concerns in the fourth quarter. The EURUSD and GBPUSD fell to daily lows of 1.4126 and 2.0258 respectively. The dollar received a boost from stabilized S&P 500 (after a drop on Friday) and a decline in oil prices, as oil fell from $90/barrel to $85 yesterday. News from the U.K. on two more banking groups putting together emergency funds to help customers hit by the credit crunch further pushed the Cable lower. This raises new questions whether the British economy has been more deeply affected by the credit market turmoil than originally expected.
As the US dollar takes a turn to shine, precious metals prices took a dive as well. Gold fell from $768 an ounce to $745 before closing at $754. Silver hit a low of $13.2725 before recovering slightly to $13.4650. We look forward to a light day of news today before heading into a barrage of US announcements from Wednesday onwards.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 EC Industrial New Orders SA MoM AUG 0.90% vs -4.00%
12:30 CA Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.50% vs -0.80%
12:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos MoM AUG 0.30% vs -0.30%
14:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index OCT 7 vs 14
21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Oct
The Risk Today:
EurUsd after the massive sell-off at the target rate of 1.4350, this level holds as a major resistance. A break of 1.4050 would be very bullish. Initial support found at 1.4140.
GbpUsd hit the bottom of the range yesterday at 2.0258 and holds as a strong support, but a break of this level will expose 2.0145 with ease. On the upside, there is no trouble moving back to 2.0536.
UsdJpy hovering around the 50% retracement of the 111.63 to 117.97 up trend, initial support is found at 114.05 and strong resistance at 115.55. Bears keep selling anything below 115.55. Above this level is short-term bullish.
UsdChf halted close to the 1.1800 resistance, topping out at 1.1786, which leaves this pair bearish. A break above could signal a move higher to 1.1953. On the downside, there is space for maneuver to 1.1630.
Resistance and Support:
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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