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Friday September 17, 2004 - 14:56:03 GMT
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Forex: It's A Forrest Gump Market

It's A Forrest Gump Market

When market participants can buy dollars on a strong New York Fed Empire Index number for September and see a 1% move and the next day sell dollars on a weak Philadelphia Fed business diffusion index also for the month of September for 0.5% move, then we are surely in a Forrest Gump market...stupid is as stupid does. Don't get me wrong, racking up 1.0-1.5% on these two numbers is not stupid. Like the movie character, there is much to be said about simplicity. So what would Forrest Gump do with the euro/dollar ahead? He would get out his ruler and connect the dots from May drawing a line for the highs and a line for the lows and sell them near 1.23 and buy them near 1.20. More seriously the broad equilibrium in the global economy I spoke of earlier is still well entrenched and not about to break down allowing a move outside of broadly speaking 1.19-1.25 range...or more simply a return to a trending market and a trending market with some duration. And maybe I am being a bit cavalier with the importance of the New York Empire manufacturing index...a state that manufacturers more chevre than Chevys. But I think not. And the fact that New York and Philadelphia are signaling two very different things about the manufacturing sector in September is no surprise. But then again Forrest knew a lot about statistics (and random walks) without knowing much about statistics when he said "Life's a box of chocolates, you never know what you will get."

Despite all sorts of questions about the sustainability of the global recovery among financial market participants, monetary authorities across G7 seem quite confident that the slow patch is in the past and good times are ahead. This assumption is key to most central banks who are now in the process of normalizing interest rates from near record lows. The Swiss National Bank rate hike today was accompanied by the quarterly Monetary Policy Review and it was more than cautiously optimistic about future growth...it was confident. Comments from ECB officials also uniformly reflect a growing confidence (and a desire to conform with its peers...get on board the normalization train). The Fed is certainly on this train and ignoring the uneven landscape along the way. But not all are having the Kool-aid or perhaps green tea. The Bank of Japan's Ueda in the last two days sounds downright concerned that Japan and the global economy have not secured an exit from the malaise the world economy has encountered since 2001...stagnation in Japan, the jobless recovery in the US and to some extent stagnation in the Euro Zone (Germany, France and Italy mainly). Ueda
talked about possibly having to ease again and stated it was too risky to even consider an early exit from quantitative easing. Ueda is not Fukui, but perhaps his very public remarks reflect a broader consensus. Fukui has after all insisted there would be no early end to quantitative easing. Arguably there is a trade here. Long euro/yen, long chf/yen, long C$/yen, long NZ$/yen, and long dollar/yen. It is a central bank trade. Long currencies of central banks normalizing rates and short ones where slowing concerns are rising and rate hikes out of the question (perhaps stg and A$ belong in the short camp). These are trades for the duration of the equilibrium I am sticking to the longer-term view that the dollar will buckle most when the global equilibrium moves from steady state, to tentative, to over. Meanwhile, a Forrest Gump approach to euro/dollar looks as sound as any.

David Gilmore
FXA
www.fxa.com

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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