Thursday October 25, 2007 - 03:01:44 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
||Unless we see a move below 113.49-66 I feel the next move will be back above 115.02-21|
||We didnâ€™t see a test of 115.21 but a direct pullback. There is good support between 113.49-66 which I suspect will hold. From here a move back above 114.31 will help price higher which should move through to the 114.90-115.21 area and this may well cause a pullback. Break above 115.21 should see gains pushing through 115.55 and then above 116.00.|
||A daily cycle low is due now and I suspect we either saw the low yesterday or it will occur today/tomorrow. A break back above 115.21-71 will confirm a reversal higher to the 117.93 area once again. (23rd October)|
||Losses came directly yesterday which slipped down to 113.80. This may have completed the move but we should be aware of the risk of a small dip to between 113.49-66. This is important support and only below here would begin to raise the risk of additional losses back to 113.24 and potentially below. If see then watch the 112.58 low with further support around 112.12 and 111.89. |
||The depth of the decline has surprised but with the daily cycle low due any day I feel weâ€™ll not see much below 112.99. The 112.58 low is also important along with the 111.90 projection. (22nd October)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I feel the 115.02 peak was probably Wave I and thus we are seeing Wave iii which should stall between 113.49-80 for a stronger rally back to 116.50-00.
Only below 113.24 risks extension in a small Wave v that has a 61.8% extension at 112.12, 66.7% at 111.89 and 76.4% at 111.44.
However, with a daily cycle low due now the longer we take in any decline the stronger the chance this is just a correction and the upside should resume.
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