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Friday September 17, 2004 - 15:56:25 GMT

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Daily Forex Market Commentary Friday, September 17, 2004 by GFT

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading

The dollar experience more than a minor pullback on Thursday because the Philly Fed surprised with a very weak report. Traders had little choice but unwind their short-term dollar long positions opened only on Wednesday, following a fairly strong manufacturing survey from New York. The market is doing little else but chasing any economic indicators, as it continues to lack much conviction. The dollar should attempt to resume its upmove on Friday. The only risk seems to be the University of Michigan report.


The euro/dollar saw the expected decline only in early trading, when it reached a six-day low of 1.2118, and it then recovered. The upmove was not very aggressive, so there is a good chance that the pair will slip today.

Any pullback should test the support at 1.2159 and a break lower would target the 1.2115 Fibonacci retracement level and maybe even to 1.2072. A further decline to 1.1990 remains very unlikely at this point.

If the euro/dollar manages to extend its gains, it needs to break above 1.2220. A break higher would signal an upmove into early next week and to 1.2270. Further strength would unfold a rally to 1.2309. Distant resistance remains at 1.2389.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yen made the expected decline on Thursday but remained in an inside range. With precious few fresh factors coming to the fore on Friday, look for a mild recovery – if the one-day-up and one-day-down pattern continues unabated.

Above 109.80, dollar/yen has resistance at 110.38 and only a break above this level would extricate it from Wednesday’s range. If the recovery surpasses this level, which is unlikely for Friday, then look for a run toward the distant resistance from a Fibonacci retracement level at 111.00. An unexpected break above this level would then call to challenge the next resistance at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

If Thursday’s weakness persists, then expect a test of the support at 109.37. If this level breaks, then the pair will test the strong support at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. Once again, this remains the key support to break. An unexpected break below 108.65 would target the nearby 108.50 level and then the pivotal support at 108.08.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Among the European currencies, it was the pound that registered the most convincing recovery on Thursday, as it pretty much wiped out all of its losses made on Wednesday the upmove was accelerated by a stronger-than-forecast retails sales report from the UK.

If this recovery is to continue, look for a break above 1.7980 and then above the more important 1.8032. This is a pivotal high and a break above this level would call for a test of the 1.8064 level. A further rally to 1.8100 is unlikely.

If the pair fails to make much upside progress, then look for a decline to1.7820 and eventually to 1.7738. A break below this level would signal a slide to the pivotal low of 1.7706. Distant support level remains at 1.7570.

Oscillators are mixed.

LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc saw the expected strength only in early trading, when it climbed as high as a six-day high of 1.2745. It then gave back all of its gains – and then some – and this suggests further losses. But don’t be hasty, this decline needs more confirmation.

Immediate support comes at 1.2650 and a break below this level would signal a decline to 1.2614. Further weakness would send dollar/Swiss franc down to as low as 1.2550. Pivotal support remains at a distant 1.2520 level.

If dollar/Swiss franc manages to recover, then look for another upmove to 1.2720 area and perhaps even 1.2745. If it can break above 1.2745, the pair would then attempt a further upmove to 1.2790.

Oscillators are mixed.

LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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