Sunday September 19, 2004 - 08:43:49 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 20th September 2004 Price: 1.7940
Resistance: 1.7960 ... 1.7980 ... 1.8005 ... 1.8035
Support....: 1.7910 ... 1.7890 ... 1.7865 ... 1.7840
We prefer a bearish scenario but wait for break of 1.7865-90 to confirm
While the long term picture is bearish we find the short term a little mixed. There is risk of seeing price remain above 1.7865-90 and any break back above 1.7960 would appear to risk the recent strength to follow-through above 1.8005 and onto the 1.8035-65 area. Further resistance at 1.8110. However, we expect this area to provide a peak.
While we prefer a bearish view we feel that we need to take a slightly cautious approach and look for confirmation of losses first. There is resistance at 1.7960 and while this holds any break below 1.7890-1.7910 and then 1.7865 would allow losses to continue. If seen then we would look for losses to reach 1.7790-1.7805 which we feel should provide a short term base. Further support is found at 1.7735-45.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th September 2004
As per our update on the 9th September the Wave C does look complete at 1.7706 and suggests a three wave correction. We look for Wave (a) to end around 1.8065-85 and for a corrective Wave (b) to correct lower and thus will imply a second leg higher once this is complete. Corrective lows around 1.7780-1.7815 should provide support for any further test higher.
20th September 2004
Since the last update we have seen quite a volatile move with the decline in Wave -b- dipping slightly more than anticipated to 1.7738 but with the subsquent rally also quite deep to 1.7970. This leaves us with two scenarios:
(1) That Wave -c- will complete a Zig-zag that should see completion between 1.8065-1.8110, and:
(2) That we see a triangle develop with a Wave -c- peak already seen at 1.7970 and this should be followed by a decline in Wave -d- down to the 1.7795-1.7805 area.
We shall watch this and update as price develops during the week.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."