Tuesday September 21, 2004 - 00:57:38 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 21st September 2004 Price: 1.7845
Resistance: 1.7870 ... 1.7900 ... 1.7915 ... 1.7940
Support....: 1.7840 ... 1.7815 ... 1.7790 ... 1.7745
While 1.7900-15 holds we remain bearish to 1.7760-90
Yesterday's losses appear to negate any overly bullish stance. There is resistance at 1.7870 and only above here would imply a test back at 1.7900-15 which we feel should hold any pullback. Only break there would allow follow-through back to 1.7940 and probably 1.7970-90. However, we do not give the upside much risk at all.
The maximum pullback we envisgae is at 1.7900-15 with earlier resistance at 1.7870. More likely we see this resistance area holding and generating losses through 1.7815 and down to 1.7790 minimum and we suspect to the 1.7760 area. For today we feel this lower area will cause a brief pullback. Only directly below 1.7740 would threaten conitnued stronger losses.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th September 2004
As per our update on the 9th September the Wave C does look complete at 1.7706 and suggests a three wave correction. We look for Wave (a) to end around 1.8065-85 and for a corrective Wave (b) to correct lower and thus will imply a second leg higher once this is complete. Corrective lows around 1.7780-1.7815 should provide support for any further test higher.
20th September 2004
Since the last update we have seen quite a volatile move with the decline in Wave -b- dipping slightly more than anticipated to 1.7738 but with the subsquent rally also quite deep to 1.7970. This leaves us with two scenarios:
(1) That Wave -c- will complete a Zig-zag that should see completion between 1.8065-1.8110, and:
(2) That we see a triangle develop with a Wave -c- peak already seen at 1.7970 and this should be followed by a decline in Wave -d- down to the 1.7795-1.7805 area.
We shall watch this and update as price develops during the week.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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