User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday November 2, 2007 - 22:02:20 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

US Dollar Fails to Respond to Payrolls Number: What Gives?


Friday, 02 November 2007 21:08:18 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist

•    US Dollar Fails to Respond to Blowout Payrolls Number: What Gives?
•    Euro On its Way to 1.50 Now that the French Have Stopped Screaming
•    Canadian Dollar Hits Record High Following Strong Employment Numbers

US Dollar Fails to Respond to Blowout Payrolls Number: What Gives?

Next to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, non-farm payrolls was the most anticipated event risk this week and it did live up to its reputation of being market moving, particularly on an intraday basis.  However the reaction in the US dollar was not what everyone expected; it has puzzled most traders who wonder why a number that doubled expectations could have sent the US dollar to a fresh record low against the Euro and Canadian dollar.  The US dollar did rise in the seconds after the release, but the move completely reversed within five minutes.  Theoretically the sharp rise payrolls should give the Federal Reserve more reason to keep interest rates unchanged even though the underlying details of the report were somewhat softer.  The breadth of job gains (also known as the diffusion index) and average hourly earnings were weaker than expected.  The unemployment rate on an unrounded basis also increased from 4.696 to 4.727 percent.  Yet these details are probably not the reason why the dollar fell because they do not have the significance to offset the blowout headline number.  Instead, the price action in the market today reflects everyone’s unwillingness to buy dollars.   Those who want to be long are already long and any “new” positions being taken are mostly on the short side.  If the US dollar can’t rally on strong economic data, what will it rally on?  We think that the dollar’s rally will come to an end only when the Federal Reserve ups their degree of hawkishness or the European Central Bank cries uncle and finally warns that the Euro’s rally has become too excessive.  We may actually get part of this opportunity next week when Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee.  Besides that, the only numbers worth watching in the US are service sector ISM, the trade balance and import prices.  At this point, a move up to 1.50 in the EUR/USD is still more likely than a move back below 1.40.

Euro On its Way to 1.50 Now that the French Have Stopped Screaming

If the Euro manages to close above 1.45 against the US dollar, it could once again be on its way to hitting 1.50. Despite slightly weaker economic data, demand for Euros or distaste for US dollars continues to grow.  Both German and Italian manufacturing PMI dropped last month even though the French and overall Eurozone number remained unchanged.  Today’s rally may be partially due to comments from the French who in the past were the most vocally opposed to Euro strength.  The French Secretary of State said this morning that they are resolving their arguments with the ECB because they have realized that the stronger Euro is helping keep prices under control.  This is the main reason why the ECB is so stubbornly hawkish.  With oil prices climbing close to $96 a barrel, foreign nations are scrambling to keep prices under control.  ECB President Trichet next week, who will be speaking after the bank’s monetary policy meeting, should share this sentiment; interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.  Aside from that, we are also expecting service sector ISM, Eurozone PPI, retail sales, German manufacturing data and the German trade balance.  As for the Swiss franc, consumer prices were stronger today, but that did little to pressure EUR/CHF.  Next week, the Swiss unemployment rate and SECO consumer climate survey are due for release.

Canadian Dollar Hits Record High Following Strong Employment Numbers

It seems like nothing can stop the Canadian dollar, which is rising again on the back of strong employment numbers and the continual rise in oil prices.  Today’s Canadian labor market report reflects the country’s economic strength.  The number of jobs added last month was five times more than the market’s expectations driving the unemployment rate down to a 33-year low.  September housing starts were also revised to the highest on record.  With a strong labor and housing market, the Canadian economy has become far more immune to US economic strength or weakness.  This will keep the Bank of Canada on hold into the first quarter with the growing possibility of an interest rate hike.  In the week ahead, we have Canadian housing market data, IVEY PMI and the trade balance.  We continue to expect USD/CAD to hit 90 cents before hitting parity.  As for the Australian and New Zealand dollars, they too are stronger against the greenback today.  There was no data released last night, but these currencies will be in play next week with labor market reports from both countries as well as a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision.  A rate hike is expected and if it materializes the Australian dollar could be the next currency to hit parity with the US dollar.

British Pound Hits Highest Level Since 1991

The British pound rose for the seventh day in a row to hit the highest level against the US dollar since 1991.  Traders continue to shrug off weaker economic data, which indicates that the currency’s strength has been primarily due to dollar weakness than improving UK fundamentals.  With a mandate to ensure price stability, the Bank of England is in the same boat as the ECB.  Next week they are also meeting to discuss interest rates, but no changes are expected.  Besides that, we also have service sector PMI, the trade balance and industrial production due for release.

Dow Meltdown Leads to Carry Trade Liquidation - The Japanese Yen crosses are all stronger today as the Dow ends the US trading session in positive territory. The stock index was down as much as 120 points intraday off of concerns in the financial sector, but it has since recovered all of those losses.  Expect the Japanese Yen crosses to continue to move in lockstep with the Dow – there is no reason for this relationship to change in the near future.  The Japanese economic calendar is light next week with only leading indicators, machine orders and the Eco Watchers survey due for release.





Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105