Monday November 5, 2007 - 05:16:05 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||While 1.4490 can support I feel there is room for gains to 1.4540 minimum and potentially 1.4588|
||Gains seen as expected which stalled at a minor wave projection at 1.4527 but while 1.4490 continues to support there still seems to be more upside risk. A move above Fridayâ€™s high at 1.4527 will assist to 1.4540. We should take a little care here as this could cause a high in a complex correction. However, I suspect this will give way and allow extension to 1.4588 and around here we should see a cap for a larger correction. Next resistance is then found at 1.4608-14 and 1.4644-64. |
||Direct gains are more likely now with shallow pullbacks. First is likely from 1.4444-77 and a larger from 1.4588. However, once this higher target is breached look for gains to the 1.4740-1.4805 target. (31st October)|
||The upside has remained under pressure and I somehow suspect this will persist to 1.4588 which should provide a good selling level. There is only one risk to watch for and that is a barrier at 1.4540. If this holds and causes a move back below 1.4490 it would highlight the risk of a move down to 1.4395. This should then hold. Next support is around 1.4345-65. |
||There still isnâ€™t much chance of a really deep pullback and only below 1.4350 would allow a return to the 1.4187 area again. Only below 1.4125 would suggest the game is up and larger losses are to come. (1st November)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
For the moment Iâ€™m going to call the correction to 1.4395-1.4414 a minor Wave iv and thus we should see a rally to the 1.4588 target in a 61.8% projection in Wave v. This is also the 138.2% projection in Wave [iii] at 1.4588 where Wave [c] will have projected by 261.8%.
The only risk is for the current rally to stall at the 38.2% expansion at 1.4540 to cause small Wave iv pullback to the 50% retracement at 1.4395 before Wave v rallies to 1.4588.
Once we get to 1.4588 then expect a slightly deeper correction in Wave [iv].
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