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Tuesday September 21, 2004 - 13:29:29 GMT
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Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading (source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=9212004)

The dollar traded slightly higher versus the European currencies on Monday but trotted in place against the Japanese yen. The market has all but discounted another 25-basis point rate hike on Tuesday, but, given a couple of warning shots the previous weekend, there is a small amount of risk that the Fed will pause this time around. More realistically, expect a rate hike but look for any change in the Fed statement that might add to the initial warnings. Trading should be choppy for most of the day.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar traded within the combined ranges of Thursday and Friday and around its 20-day and100-day moving averages and this sideways trading should continue at least through the afternoon.

Any pullback should hold above the support at 1.2115 from a Fibonacci retracement level. An unexpected break lower would target 1.2072. A further decline to 1.1990 remains very unlikely at this point.

If the euro/dollar manages to rally, it still needs to break above 1.2220. A break higher would signal an upmove into early next week and to 1.2270. Further strength would unfold a rally to 1.2309. Distant resistance remains at 1.2389.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen still remains confined to last Wednesday’s range and even its one-day-up and one-day-down pattern started to falter as the pair closed unchanged on Monday.

Above 110.38, dollar/yen has resistance from the distant resistance from a Fibonacci retracement level at 111.00. An unexpected break above this level would then call to challenge the next resistance at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

If it heads lower, look for a test of the support at 109.50. If this level breaks, then the pair will test again the strong support at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. Once again, this remains the key support to break and an unexpected break below 108.65 would target the nearby 108.50 level and then the pivotal support at 108.08.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish

Sterling/dollar

While it remains stationary in an inside range, the sterling/dollar is also under pressure. The pair is hovering around its declining 20-day moving average roughly in the middle of its declining channel.

If the pair remains under selling pressure, then look for a decline to1.7810 and eventually to 1.7738. A break below the latter level would signal a slide to the pivotal low of 1.7706. Distant support level remains at 1.7570.

Immediate resistance remains between 1.7970 and 1.7980. A break higher would mean taking another stab at the more important 1.8032 level. This is a pivotal high and a break above this level would call for a test of the 1.8064 level. A further rally to 1.8100 remains unlikely.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc rallied on Monday as high as a 12-day high of 1.2772. It then gave back some of its gains but managed to hold above its rising 20-day moving average in the 1.2675 area.

If it can hold on to its gains, expect the dollar/Swiss franc to attack the 1.2790 peak. If it can break above this level, the pair would then attempt a further upmove to 1.2847. A distant pivotal high looms at 1.3085.

Immediate support comes at 1.2675 and a break below this line would signal a decline to 1.2614. Further weakness would send dollar/Swiss franc crashing down to as low as 1.2550. Pivotal support remains at 1.2520.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

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