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Monday November 5, 2007 - 13:13:23 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
US Payrolls reported positive job growth; Dollar closes lower.
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
The October non-farm payrolls figures came out higher than expected at 166,000 versus 96,000 in September. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7%, and hourly wages jumped 0.3%. The revised September figures came out lower but the employment rate kept steady. The US dollar rallied briefly after the news release, but traders and automated systems bought Euros and British Pounds on dips forcing the Euro and Cable to make new highs and the dollar closing the day lower. On the flip side, the UK and Eurozone's economic outlook show slightly less optimism and US dollar flows are predicted to increase out of Euros and British Pounds. Look for Eurozone fundamental news this week to take a directional position. In early trading this morning, the EURUSD hit a high of 1.4525 and Cable a high of 2.0898.
The Canadian dollar continued rising with crude oil rising back to over $96 a barrel and positive economic news. Canada reported job growth of 63,000 and a lower unemployment rate of 5.8%. This is the lowest unemployment figure in 33 years.
With commodity currencies rising to higher and higher levels, there was no stopping the precious metals, Gold and Silver. Higher crude oil and a weaker dollar triggered further cash flow into the metals, pushing Gold to a high of $808/ounce and Silver to $14.6900. With the $800 level broken on Gold, $850 is the next target should demand and the weaker dollar continue.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
08:30 BoJ Governor Fukui press conference, Osaka
09:30 EU November Sentix Investor Confidence (versus 15.3 October)
09:30 GB October Services PMI (55.2 to 56.5 versus 56.7 September)
09:30 GB October Official Reserves (versus $1069M September)
09:30 GB September Industrial Production
09:30 GB September Manufacturing Production
14:00 US Fed's Mishkin speaks on risk, New York
15:00 US October Non-Manufacturing ISM
18:00 US Fed's Kroszner speaks on mortgage lending, Virginia
The Risk Today:
EurUsd the trend is still up, as long as we keep above 1.4350, and the target remains 1.4542.
GbpUsd initial support holds at 2.0754 and key level is at 2.0660. The trend is still up but we've hit all our targets and it seems it's time for a retracement. Psychologically, speculators are eyeing 2.1000 but for now, there is no technical justification for that level.
UsdJpy confronts heavy resistance up to 116.40. Strong support is found at 113.70 and anything below that is very bearish.
UsdChf as indicated in the past, the pair is very bearish below 1.1800 and confirmed by a break down under 1.1630. The downtrend is strong but expect a retracement to 1.1670. Bulls will only enter at a break out of 1.1800.
Resistance and Support:
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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