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Tuesday November 6, 2007 - 17:59:53 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (6 November 2007)

The euro strengthened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4570 level and was supported around the $1.4465 level.  The common currency rocketed to a new lifetime high today as traders continued to reduce U.S. dollar exposure on account of sub-prime write downs by U.S. financial institutions.  Eurogroup chief Juncker talked up the euro’s recent strength saying “It is better because it's more credible, because it has been promised that the euro is a respectable currency. The euro cannot get indefinitely much stronger much longer than it currently is, but better this way than the other way around.” Juncker also added he “noted with interest” that the U.S. government has talked up the strong U.S. dollar.  The common currency shrugged off a decline in German September manufacturing orders that saw new orders fall 2.5% m/m and climb 1.1% y/y.  Most traders believe the European Central Bank will keep its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.0% this week and traders will closely monitor statements from ECB chief Trichet to see how hawkish he remains.  Other data released today saw EMU-13 September PPI up 0.4% m/m and 2.7% y/y while October final services PMI was upwardly revised to 55.8 from 55.6. Also, German October services PMI improved to 55.1.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4385 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥114.25 level and was capped around the ¥114.80 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from ¥109.00 to ¥124.15.  Traders dumped yen on increasing speculation BoJ’s Policy Board will not lift interest rates before the end of the year, and possibly not before the end of the current fiscal year in March 2008.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the September index of leading economic indicators decline to zero from 27.3 in August – the first time it’s been at zero since December 1997.  Also, the coincident index weakened to 66.7 from 85.0.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.12% to close at ¥16,249.63.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥113.85 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥166.95 level and was supported around the ¥165.45 level.  The British pound and Swiss gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥239.60 and ¥100.30 levels, respectively.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.4530 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.4551.  Data released in China overnight saw September consumer confidence decline to 97.0 from 97.3.  PBoC Governor Zhou reported China’s monetary policy must satisfy multiple objectives including “growth, employment, price stability, and a balance of international payments.”


The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0905 level and was supported around the $2.0800 figure.  The pair’s intraday high represented a new multi-decade peak for the pair.  BoE Governor King warned some risks remain in the banking sector following the recent run on Northern Rock Plc and write-downs in the U.S. banking sector.  Data released in the U.K. today saw BRC October like-for-like retail sales climb an annual 1.0%, an eleven month low.  Also, NIESR estimated U.K. GDP expanded 0.7% m/m in October.  Most traders expect BoE’s MPC to keep rates its repo rate unchanged on Thursday.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 2.0740 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6980 level and was supported around the ₤0.6950 level.




The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1420 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1545 level.  OECD lifted its Swiss growth forecast today and reported Swiss National Bank may need to tighten monetary policy further.  Many traders believe domestic inflation is above SNB’s perceived comfort zone and the franc’s weakness on the euro/ Swiss cross rate could engender inflation pressures.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1530 level.  The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6630 and CHF 2.3850 levels, respectively.


A$/ NZ$


The Australian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9270 level and was supported around the $0.9200 figure.  Most traders expect Reserve Bank of Australia to lift its official cash target rate by 25bps to 6.75% tomorrow and will evaluate the hawkishness of the RBA’s policy statement.  Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.9115 level.  The New Zealand dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the kiwi tested offers around the US$ 0.7775 level and was supported around the $0.7695 level.  New Zealand dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7625 level.



The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9230 level and was capped around the C$ 0.9335 level.  Traders await remarks from Bank of Canada Deputy Jenkins later in the North American session.  Data released in Canada today saw October Ivey PMI rise to 57.1 from 56.0 in September.  Also, September building permits were off 1.7% m/m.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 0.9455 level. 


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