Wednesday September 22, 2004 - 02:44:49 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 22nd September 2004 Price: 109.70
Resistance: 109.90 ... 110.15 ... 110.45 ... 110.60
Support....: 109.60 ... 109.45 ... 109.05 ... 108.75
Trade with break of 109.45 - 110.15 range. Our bias is higher.
No break of the 110.15 resistance yesterday but a return to the low end of the recent (narrowing) range. With the Dollar weakness seen against the European currencies we do need to be slightly cautious of an overly bullish scenario but until 109.45 is broken we still marginally prefer this stance. We will need to see resistance at 109.90 broken and then 110.15 and if seen this should allow follow through to 110.70 and then 111.20. However, if seen this level should cap.
Price has returned towards the low of the recent range and with the Dollar weakness seen against the Europeans we do need to be aware of the risk of the same happening here. However, this will require a break of 110.45 and then the series of lows around 109.30-35. Once below we would then expect follow-through to 108.50-75 and possibly lower. Next support is at 108.10.
Elliott Wave Comments:
September 16th 2004
With the lack of follow-through lower we find the bearish wave count difficult to justify. Indeed we have therefore relabeled the chart below to consider the 108.75 low as the base of Wave (c) of a triangle from the 106.99 low. This should imply Wave (d) of the triangle being around 111.00-10 which would leave Wave (e) remaining above 109.20-30 and probably finding a base between 109.60-110.20. A break above 112.46 would suggest the uptrend to year end has already begun.
September 20th 2004
There is no change in our view from the end of last week. The extreme lack of direction makes the interpreatation of the wave count slightly difficult to assess but it is clear that the past week has seen soome form of complex correction. Our favored view is that this forms part of a triangle in a Wave (x) position that should complete by the end of today or into tomorrow to allow a rally into the larger triangle high to complete Wave (d). This should develop in three waves. From the line drawn the implied high is around 110.10 but do allow for a false break to around 111.10-50 before pullback in Wave (e). Ideally the Wave (e) should remain above 110.00-30 but we should allow for a dip as far as 109.50-70. Subsequent strength should be persistent - for targets please see the long term view in the monthly section.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."