Wednesday November 7, 2007 - 13:04:55 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
FX Global-View Monthly Forex Survey Forecasts In the November monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.4563 from 1.4148 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (November 5 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.4469.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was about neutral in the EUR/USD at 55 from 48 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast eased to 113.94 from 115.24 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 114.36. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was neutral. It was unchanged at 49.
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $94.06 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $77.88 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked if the bank of Japan would hike interest rates before the end of 1Q08. 63% said no, while 37% felt they would raise rates.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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