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Wednesday May 12, 2004 - 08:23:03 GMT -

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Euro/Dollar shows inverted H&S on the hourly

Daily Forex Technical Report 05-12-2004

EUR/USD shows inverted H&S on the hourly
GBP/USD holds lower Bollinger support

Technical Outlook

Although bears remain in control below 1.2180 (Mar 5th high), the EUR/USD's reversal after hitting a low of 1.1787 will be a huge disappointment for bears. A decisive move lower cannot occur unless 1.1760 is taken out, which is the bottom of the 2-yr bull channel / Mar-26 low and lower Bollinger. In the short-term, stochastics nearing oversold territory and an inverted head and shoulders on the hourly will give bulls the opportunity to capture some quick profits on the break of yesterday's 1.1893 high and down trendline resistance from the 1.2930 Feb-18 top. Gains should be limited by the moving average confluence and fibo resistance (38.2% of May 5 high to May 11 low) above at 1.1935/40. See chart of the day for USD/JPY. The 250-pip sell off in the GBP/USD below the April-29 low confirms the pair's downtrend following the break of the head & shoulders neckline on April-20. Bears will look to sell on rallies towards 1.7790/1.7800, at the 10-day SMA and 38.3% fibo of the Aug-Feb bull wave. Buy on dip players may look to go long at the lower Bollinger and 200-day EMA cross (1.7565) for some quick profits. Another opportunity to capture a brief correction is 1.7375 / 1.7425, the 200-day SMA and 50% fibo of the Aug-Feb rally. The pullback in USD/CHF may give bulls the opportunity to reinitiate long positions, however a break below the 10-day SMA at 1.2920 will risk a deeper corrective setback towards the May 6 high and 50-day SMA support at 1.2865. Bears should keep their excitement guarded until the May 5th low is taken out. A break above the April 27-29 highs at 1.31 exposes the pair for a possible return to the year to date high at 1.3230.


Comment from 04/15
On 03/15 USD/JPY broke the 110.20 level and reached the 106.50 level on 03/18, 370pts lower. The market stalled in the area for 3 days. Today the outlook is still pretty negative and bears will have a couple of decent opportunities. Aggressive range players will step in at 109.20/40 in order to exploit the High BB and 61.8% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave. More conservative bears will concentrate in 2 areas: 110.00/50 (200 SMA and strong Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave & 38.2% Fibo from the Aug - Apr bear wave)) and 112.50/80 (key swing high and 50% Fibo from the from the Aug - Apr bear wave). Finally bulls will have few clean options until 112.50 breaks but dips at 106.20/40 will certainly attract the aggressive buy on dip crowd thanks to the 20 EMA.

USD/JPY had a high at 109.28 on 04/15 before a retracement to the 107.50 low on 04/16 (178pts lower). On 04/22 the high was at 109.93 (slightly below our 110.00/50 area) and the pair retraced back to the 109.35 low on 04/26, 58pts lower. The market is obviously overextended but the downtrend is now clearly broken. Bulls have the upper hand and aggressive dip players will look into the 111.70/112.10 zone to add to their USD holdings (50% Fibo from the Aug - Apr bear wave and 10 SMA). Below another decent "buy on dip" level will be 107.80/108.10 thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Mar bear wave and 100 SMA. Bears will be cautious but 114.30/70 seems like a nice reversal area thanks to the Swing High, High BB and a robust Fibo confluence (61.8% Fibo from the Aug - Apr bear wave & 61.8% Fibo from the 99 - 02 bull wave). A sustained breakout above would then open the door to the 116 level, the 138.2% Fibo from the Mar bear wave.


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