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Wednesday September 22, 2004 - 20:39:05 GMT
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Forex Market Analysis and Commentary (22 September 2004)



The euro retraced most of its intraday gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2230 level after diving from the $1.2320 level during early North American dealing. The common currency retraced most of its sharp late-day gains from yesterday following the FOMC’s 25bps monetary tightening. ECB’s Trichet spoke at length today and said EMU-12 inflation rates are “exactly in line” with the ECB’s price stability mandate. Trichet also said recent movements in FX rates should not be “over-interpreted” and called the euro a “remarkable success story.” Additionally, he called for an “orderly increase of the euro’s use” as an international currency and cautioned against changing the underpinnings of the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact as some eurozone countries are considering. Data released in the eurozone today saw French consumer spending on manufactured goods experience another lackluster result in August while German July manufacturing orders were downwardly revised to +2.8% m/m from the originally-reported +3.0%. Also, EMU-12 July industrial orders were -0.6% m/m and +5.4% y/y while the EMU-12 trade surplus decelerated in July. Euro bids are cited around the $1.2220 level.

¥

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥110.75 level and was supported around the ¥109.60 during Australasian dealing. The pair did not lost much ground following yesterday’s interest rate hike by the Fed thus many traders deemed the pair’s reaction to be quite bullish. Some profit-taking was seen around the ¥110.40 level during North American dealing today but the pair quickly recovered to the ¥110.65 level. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Iwata today suggested Japan’s core consumer price index may register positive growth in late 2004 if the Japanese economy expands at a rate over 4%. Nonetheless, most traders do not expect the BoJ will tighten policy before the current fiscal year ends in March of 2005. Data released in Japan today saw the August trade surplus decrease 26.0% y/y to ¥576.14 billion, the first decrease in fourteen months. The fall was attributable to the spike in oil prices as Japan is a major net importer of oil products. The Nikkei 225 stock index shed 0.55% today to close at ¥11,019.41, the fifth consecutive daily decline, while the TOPIX was off 0.17% at ¥1,114.08. The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the yen today as the single currency tested offers around the ¥ 135.65 level and was supported around the ¥135.10 level.

 

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