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Saturday November 10, 2007 - 23:19:28 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Preview of BOJ Policy Meeting
GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: November 13
- Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.50%
- Expected decision: No change.
- Despite a lot of empty bluster by the central bank, no increase in rates is likely from the BOJ anytime soon. Note below that core and headline CPI remain mildly deflationary. Also the economy has started to slow again. The political situation also is in turmoil. Despite official talk about policy "normalization" a move to higher rates anytime soon is unlikely and would probably be ill-advised. Note in the short-term rate chart below that the markets have been adjusting down the odds of future hikes.
BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
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