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Monday November 12, 2007 - 11:59:47 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 12-Nov-2007....1118 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.1272/77....Important Resistance at 1.1345
------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1260 / 1.1300
S: 1.1215 / 1.1185
USD-CHF saw a sharp sell-off last week, within a downtrend which originally started at 1.1897 (09-Oct). It is currently near its lowest level since Dec-1995. The current important Support is at 1.1100, the Dec-1995 low. The important Resistance for the week is at 1.1350, a rally above which could indicate some sort of sideways action / profit booking on short positions or a consolidation of the losses. The directional bias for the pair remains bearish while below 1.1350 on a sustained basis. Note that USD-CHF is trading just below its trendline on the daily candles joining the lows of 1.2238 (Sep-05) and 1.1922 (May-06), and a move above 1.1350 would indicate that this trendline has held. There has been a bounce so far in the day, which faces an immediate Resistance at 1.1300-08,

the statistically projected Max High for the day. Above that the Resistance is at 1.1350. On the downside the Support is at 1.1240 and 1.1200. We favour selling rallies currently, while below 1.1350. 
 


 GBP-USD @ 2.0764/68.....Holding Short
-------------------------------------
R: 2.0830 / 2.0870
S: 2.0760 / 2.0720
GBP-USD hit a high of 2.1163 on Friday and has come off very sharply from there, clearly being pressurized by GBP-JPY, which has fallen below its 200-Day MA of 237.30. Importantly GBP-JPY is currently trading near an important Support of 228.60-00 and should that break then GBP-USD could come under further selling pressure.

GBP-USD has an immediate Support near 2.0670, near the July-07 High. Below that the Support is at 2.0550-36, on the trendline on the daily joining the lows of 1.9879 (18-Sep) and 2.0258 (22-Oct). The Resistance for the week is at 2.0900, a move above which is required to question the current downside potential.

During the day, there was a rally to a high of 2.0868, and GBP-USD has come off from there. This is good news for the bears, as selling on rallies was seen. As such, if the immediate Support of 2.0760 is broken, then there would be a fall towards 2.0720 underway. The immediate Resistances are at 2.0860-70 and then at 2.0900, and the latter is not expected to be crossed. We are holding a short position.

Holding:
GBP 10K Short at 2.0780, SL 2.0910, TP 2.0680. As soon as the market trades 2.0700, bring SL down to 2.0820.

UK CPI would come out tomorrow. See Chart at
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukcpi.shtml

 

 
 AUD-USD @ 0.8874/79....Falling Sharply
-----------------------------------------
R: 0.8940 / 0.8980
S: 0.8840 / 0.8800
Very sharp fall today. Has broken below a very crucial trendline on the Daily Candles, joining the Lows at 0.7677 (17-Aug) and 0.8752 (22-Oct). This breaks the uptrend since 0.7677 (17-Aug) Low. Immediate target for the current fall would be 0.8800 and then 0.8750.

Then 0.8700 beckons. Do not try to take Long positions. Look to sell on rallies.

We would want to sell rallies because 0.8886 is the projected Max Low on the Weekly. For the while, today's fall looks like it could be "excessive".

 

Happy Trading!

 

 

 

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