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Trade the News - European Market Update: UK PPI Input and Output Blows Expectations AwayEuropean Market Update: UK PPI Input and Output Blows Expectations Away
ยท *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
ยท SW Oct Headline CPI: M/M 0.5% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 2.7% v 2.6%e
ยท SW Oct Underlying CPI: M/M 0.5% v 0.3%e || Y/Y 1.4% v 1. 1%e
ยท UK Oct PPI Input: M/M 1.8% v 1.5%e || Prior revised from 3.2% to 3.9% |||| Y/Y 8.6% v 7.0%e || Prior revised from 6.4% to 6. 5%
ยท UK Oct PPI Output: M/M 0.6% v 0.2%e || Prior revised from 0.1% to 0.3% |||| Y/Y 3.8% v 3.3%e || Prior revised from 2.7% to 2.8%
ยท UK Oct PPI Output Core: M/M 0.3% v 0.2%e || Prior revised from 0. 2% to 0.1% |||| Y/Y 2.3% v 2.2%e
ยท UK Sep DCLG House Prices: 10.8% v 10.8%e || Prior revised from 11.4% to 11.3%
ยท Producer prices for the month of October blew out consensus expectations all around with upward revisions to most of September's readings, weighing down on the front end of the yield curve in the UK. PPI input was bolstered by a rise in fuel and oil prices, as was PPI output. The data kicks off the a long week of economic data in the UK, and is perhaps a sign of things to come over the next few days.
ยท *** COMMENTS/SPEAKERS ***
ยท ECB Gonzalez- Paramo: The ECB remains in information gathering mode
ยท ECB Gonzalez-Paramo: We will see very important info at the start of December
ยท ECB Gonzalez-Paramo: What we have seen on FX markets has not been smooth
ยท ECB Gonzalez-Paramo: Sharp FX movements are not good for growth
ยท ECB Tumpel-Gugerell: Globalization means that any financial distress at a big global player would have far reaching effects
ยท JP MOF Tsuda: Reiterates that will monitor financial market moves
ยท JP MOF Tsuda: Japan is recovering despite some weaknesses
ยท JP MOF Tsuda: Waching impact of oil prices and US economic slowdown on Japan
ยท JP MOF Tsuda: Says strong Yen has both good and bad aspects
ยท CH Currency Regulator: To relax controls on outward investment, to gradually make Yuan fully convertible
ยท *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
ยท USD/JPY fell to 18-months lows on the back of sub-prime jitters. Additional jitters come as the US FASB regulation 157 is set to take effect this Thursday, which could result in a further $100B in loss writedowns. The effects of the unwinding of the JPY are not just limited to the USD, and are being felt across the board.
ยท Front month crude continues to trade in negative territory in the session ahead of the mid-November OPEC summit scheduled to take place next weekend. Front-month crude jumped higher in the session on reports of an gun battle at a Nigerian based oil right, however the news was not enough to push front month contracts into positive territory.
ยท The yield on the 10-year gilt broke above that of the 2-year gilts for the first time since November 28, 2005 today as the sharper-than-expected reading on PPI input and output figures weighted down on the front end of the curve.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.
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