Monday November 12, 2007 - 20:21:07 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Westpac Institutional Bank - Morning Report
Tuesday 13 November 2007
New Zealand dollar
Risk aversion sees NZD under pressure. The NZD opened with a slight bearish tone yesterday morning, with the currency seeing some early selling pressure on the back of AUD weakness and JPY strength. A lack of liquidity also made it difficult for traders to clear flows as the NZD chopped around in a wide range. With risk aversion now to the fore, support at 0.7600 eventually gave way as the currency fell to around 0.7550. A further meltdown in the AUD, and the USD/JPY falling below 110.00, saw the NZD under further pressure late in the afternoon, eventually trading to the dayâ€™s low around 0.7530. The global risk aversion meltdown continued overnight, most notably affecting the AUD, CAD and NZD; this saw the NZD trade to an overnight low of 0.7447 before bargain hunters stepped up and grabbed some cheap NZDâ€™s. The NZD opens this morning around 0.7500, but with a bearish look about it.
Meltdown in AUD sees currency fall sharply. The AUD was also dumped yesterday, most notably against the JPY, with investors growing increasingly nervous about holding risky position in high yielding currencies. Asian equity market weakness also added to the bearish sentiment. Some support was noted around 0.9000 ahead of the RBAâ€™s Statement on Monetary Policy, however with the statement not being as hawkish as was expected the currency came under further pressure soon after the release. As the USD/JPY fell through 110.00 the AUD fell sharply, losing 100 points very quickly. Risk aversion continued into the offshore session with the currency recording an overnight low of 0.8790 before settling around 0.8830 where it opens this morning.
USD gains in holiday thinned trading. The theme of risk aversion remained dominant throughout the market overnight. Equity markets have fallen sharply, with the Nikkei down 3.4% at one stage. This follows on from Friday's negative lead from Wall St, although yesterdayâ€™s falls have been more pronounced. Currencies took their cue from the global reduction of risk with both GBP and euro retreating from multi-year highs against the US dollar. GBP in particular got hammered falling well over 250 points before finding a base. Meanwhile USD/JPY ducked below 110.00 for the first time since May 2006. Gains by the US dollar may have been exacerbated by increased caution in thin markets with the US Treasury debt market closed for the Veterans Day holiday.
Economic data and events
No US data.
Japanese Oct corporate goods prices 2.4%yr, up from 1.7%. On the month, the index rose 0.3% after declining 0.1% in Sep. Oil prices were a key factor in the rise, as were base metals. Utilities prices fell, while ferrous metals and lumber declined, perhaps reflecting policy induced weakness in the dwelling construction sector. Domestic final demand goods improved to +0.2%yr from -0.2% in Sep. Consumer goods prices rose 0.7%yr (+0.1% prior) while capital goods prices were unchanged at 0.2%yr. The import and export price indices rose 3.9%yr and 0.9% respectively, implying that the terms of trade remains a drag on aggregate income growth and a constraint on the corporate sector's ability to raise employee wages.
Japanese September current account steady above Â¥2trn. The seasonally adjusted current account surplus was Â¥2193bn in September, down slightly from August's Â¥2242bn. The trade balance widened appreciably, offsetting a decline in the income surplus, with a translation impact from the stronger currency likely at play. The unadjusted data shows that the basic balance (net recycling of the surplus) widened to a surplus of Â¥489bn.
UK producer prices surprise to the upside in Oct. The PPI was stronger on all key measures: input, output and core. Annual output prices jumped from 2.8% yr
in Sep to 3.8% yr in Oct. This follows news last week that shop prices grew at their fastest pace for the year so far in Oct. These signals are supportive of our above consensus 2.1% yr CPI forecast for Oct, due out tonight.
UK house prices ease from 11.3% yr to 10.8% yr in Sep. This is the DCLG (govt) measure. Although it shows house price inflation moderating, it is running faster than some of the private sector surveys which have eased back into single digit growth rates.
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ Oct Food Prices 0.4% 0.4%
Aust Oct NAB Business Survey 16 n/f
US Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.3 46.5
Oct Federal Budget $bn â€“49.3 â€“59.0
Sep Pending Home Sales â€“6.5% flat
Jpn Q3 GDP saar â€“1.2% 2.6%
Bank of Japan Decision 0.50% 0.50%
Eur Nov ZEW Economic Sentiment â€“19.0 â€“20.0
Sep Industrial Production 1.2% 0.2%
Ger Nov ZEW Economic Sentiment â€“18.1 â€“18.0
UK Oct House Prices net bal % â€“14.6 â€“19.0
Oct CPI %yr 1.8% 2.1%
Latest Research Papers/Publications
â€¢ NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (12 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3 HLFS Review (8 November)
â€¢ Climate change to put heat on RBNZ (7 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3 LCI and QES Review (5 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (5 November)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bankâ€™s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 13 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. Â© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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