Tuesday November 13, 2007 - 05:29:23 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||While 1.4545-55 supports there is still room for gains to 1.4635-62 but then we should see losses|
||The upside finally stalled at 1.4751 from where we have seen substantial losses. It may have been that we saw a major peak at 1.4751 but with cycles still apparently bullish we need be cautious until a stronger reversal signal has been seen. At the moment I feel the recovery from 1.4520 is not yet complete and while 1.4545-55 supports there does seem risk for gains to move back above this morningâ€™s high at 1.4575 and onto 1.4635-62 where we may see a further attempt lower. Above -> 1.4696 & 1.4751.|
||Gains have reached the ideal 1.4740-1.4805 target. While we may have seen the top we cannot rule out a second attempt higher to the 1.4805 area but a peak should occur before long. (13th November)|
||Sharp losses from 1.4751 have reached 1.4520. Now whether we saw a major peak at 1.4751 is uncertain and even if it was only part of a final rally we need be cautious about the downside. Initially I feel 1.4545-55 should support and thus only below would revisit the 1.4519 low with breach indicating additional losses to 1.4438 where a base should form â€“ at the most 1.4384. Next supports are then found at 1.4340 & 1.4270-80.|
||Weekly targets have been met and we should consider the chance that we have just seen a major high. However, only below 1.4420 and 1.4384 would imply direct stronger losses. (13th November)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Have we seen the end of Wave (c) at 1.4751 or was it merely Wave [iii]? If we take Fibonacci relationships the end of Wave (c) appears a stronger argument.
However, to be prudent while cycles still may have a little more on the upside we need identify what would constitute a break lower. A 50% retracement in Wave [iv] lies at 1.4438 and a 58.6% retracement at 1.4384.
Thus I still feel there is risk of a test of this support area but most likely we shall see a recovery from there and we need then judge whether this can get to the weekly Wave (iii) target at 1.4805.
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