Thursday September 23, 2004 - 20:58:09 GMT
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Biweekly GVI Survey Results
The Bi-weekly GVI survey of professional dealers continued to see little change for the eur/$ and $/yen by the end of next week with mean forecasts for 1.2233 and 110.21 for the European close on Friday, October 1. For yearend the eur/$ is seen slightly higher at 1.2397 and the $/yen weaker at 109.01. That is a higher eur/$ than predicted two weeks ago (1.2121) and virtually no change in $/yen (109.10).
The tracking survey for the November U.S. election has dealers increasingly expecting Bush to beat Kerry. The poll shows 81% to 19% of participants now thinking Bush will win. On July 29, the Bush margin was at its smallest of 54% to 46%.
As for Fed Funds, respondents overwhelmingly expect a 2.0% Funds rate at year end and the preponderance of Crude Oil forecasts for yearend fall fairly evenly in s $40-50 range. There is no consensus view evident. In the previous survey the preponderance of forecasts was below $42.
For survey results:
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