Morning Report Wednesday 14 November 2007
New Zealand dollar
NZD bounces from three week low. Volatility in the NZD continued yesterdaym with the currency opening around 0.7500 after the previous nights sell off. With Dow Jones equities selling off into the New York close so did the NZD briefly touching a three week low of 0.7436. The NZD fared better after this latest equity crunch and gained throughout the day, bolstered by news that NZ food prices had risen 0.6% in October. Overnight saw NZD reach a high of 0.7618 before profit taking took NZD back to today‚Äôs open of 0.7540.
Carry trade volatility continues. The AUD saw a similar pattern of events as the NZD, with carry trade flow dominating the day‚Äôs moves. From an open of around 0.8850 the AUD was sold on further risk aversion and carry trade unwind to a low of 0.8756. Large falls in gold overnight, added weight to the already declining AUD. From those lows the AUD has made a solid recovery as USD/JPY rallied and carry trade buying was back in vogue. The release of the NAB business survey showed positive gains in Australian Business Conditions and Confidence for October. This helped AUD managed a high of 0.8971 before correcting to today‚Äôs open which is around 0.8910.
Some consolidation after yesterday‚Äôs volatility. The USD gave up ground against most currencies overnight but did manage to recover from an 18 month low against the yen. Japanese GDP data and a ‚Äėno change‚Äô BoJ interest rate decision failed to stir the market however comments from Japan‚Äôs Prime minister that the yen was ‚Äúappreciating too fast‚ÄĚ was enough to halt the yen‚Äôs recent rally. The euro was fairly choppy with an initial push up to 1.4630 blunted by a sharp fall in ZEW expectations (survey of economic sentiment). GBP meanwhile received a timely boost from stronger than expected CPI data and retraced around 140 points that it had given up the previous day.
Economic data and events
US IBD/TIPP consumer optimism falls from 47.3 to 43.8 in Nov. This measure of consumer confidence fell sharply in November, as did the Uni of Michigan sentiment index, reported late last week. The November reading was the weakest seen since the immediate aftermath of hurricane Katrina, when it fell to 42.
Japanese Q3 GDP expanded 0.6%qtr, 2.2%yr, 2.6% saar. That was right on our expectations, but a little above the market. Consumption was modest at 0.3%qtr; dwelling investment fell 3.5%qtr; non-residential investment was up 1.7%qtr, inventories added 0.1ppt, net exports added 0.4ppt and public demand contracted 0.2%qtr. Q2 was revised down 0.1ppts to -0.4%qtr.
Bank of Japan on hold at 0.50%. This outcome was fully expected following the balanced commentary in the six monthly Outlook published on October 31.
German ZEW expectations fall from ‚Äď18 to ‚Äď33 in Nov. German analysts have become significantly more pessimistic about the outlook for the German and broader Euroland economies this month, although their assessment of the current situation was only modestly downgraded (the reverse of October when current fell sharply but expectations were steady). The ZEW cited the usual culprits ‚Äď concern about the US economy stemming from sub-prime fallout; oil prices; and the appreciating euro.
Euroland industrial production posted a 0.7% fall in Sep, which gives us confidence that our below consensus 0.5% forecast for Q3 GDP growth (due tomorrow) is on the ball. Also, Italian GDP growth was reported up 0.4% in Q3, in line with consensus.
UK CPI 2.1% yr in Oct. The headline CPI jumped 0.3 ppts to 2.1% yr in October, exactly in line with Westpac‚Äôs top of the range forecast. The breakdown was as we expected, with sizeable contributions from fuel and food prices, which both added 0.3 ppts to the annual rate. Although the core rate was steady at 1.5%, the Bank of England will note that the headline RPI, which is the rate used in wage negotiations, rose to a four month high.
UK house prices to tumble? The RICS survey shows that surveyor members are increasingly valuing houses lower. It fell from ‚Äď15% to ‚Äď22% in Oct. Wednesday 14 November 2007
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ Q3 Producer Prices Output/Input 1.2%/1.3% 1.1%/0.9%
Aus Nov Westpac-MI Consumer Sent 115.3 n/f
Q3 Wage Price Index %qtr 1.1% 0.9%
US Oct Producer Prices/Core 1.1%/0.1% 0.5%/0.2%
Oct Retail Sales/ex auto 0.6%/0.4% flat/0.1%
Sep Business Inventories 0.1% 0.4%
Eur Q3 GDP Advance 0.3% 0.5%
Ger Q3 GDP (Prelim) 0.3% 0.4%
UK Oct Unemployment ch‚Äô ‚Äď13k ‚Äď8k
BoE Quarterly Inflation Report
Can Oct Leading Index 0.4% 0.3%
Sep Auto Sales 2.8% ‚Äď2.0%
Latest Research Papers/Publications
‚ÄĘ NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (12 November)
‚ÄĘ NZ Q3 HLFS Review (8 November)
‚ÄĘ Climate change to put heat on RBNZ (7 November)
‚ÄĘ NZ Q3 LCI and QES Review (5 November)
‚ÄĘ NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (5 November)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank‚Äôs website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. ¬© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.