Friday September 24, 2004 - 01:07:25 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 24th September 2004 Price: 1.2270
Resistance: 1.2320 ... 1.2346 ... 1.2385 ... 1.2405
Support....: 1.2250 ... 1.2225 ... 1.2200 ... 1.2185
Cautiously bullish for 1.2346 again and probably 1.2400
We look for 1.2250 to continue holding and for a break above 1.2285 to trigger gains to 1.2320 at least. This may cause a brief correction but we feel the risk today is for further gains to rally above 1.2346 and 1.2385 and reach the 1.2405 reistance which we tentatively feel will hold. Only a break above 1.2410 would suggest follow-through to 1.2445-60 en route 1.2505.
We tend to feel that a bearish stance is not appropriate today. We have sen price bounce off from the 1.2250 support and only below here would concern. If seen we would then look for a retest of 1.2225 and probably follow-through to the 1.2185 Fibonacci support where we would expecta floor. Watch resistance at 1.2405 for signs of a cap forming.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd September 2004
Quite clearly our old bearish wave count is incorrect. We have therefore provided two alternatives which we shall monitor over the coming days.
* The long term bearish count would label the peak at 1.2385 as Wave (a) with the correction to 1.1986 as Wave (b) and thus we are seeing a Wave (c) develop within which yesterday's high at 1.2346 saw the peak of Wave -iii- (this being exactly 1.382 times Wave -i-). This would imply a correction in Wave -iv- down to 1.2180-1.2220 before Wave -v- rallies to the 1.2450-00 area.
* The more bullish view would have the 1.2119 low as the end of a trianglular correction from the previous 1.2460 peak and thus we are seeing a stronger break higher. Within this any correction will be fairly restrained - possibly to the 1.2275 area from where stronger gains can be seen.
24th September 2004
Wave -iv- appears to have been completed at 1.2225 with Wave a of Wave -v- rising to 1.2333 and Wave b of Wave -v- correcting back to 1.2250. This implies several targets for Wave -v- at 1.2400, 1.2445 and 1.2500. If we take Wave equality of Wave (a) we achieve a wave equality target at 1.2400 and a projection of 1.382 at 1.2565. Thus we tend to favor seeing a peak at 1.2400.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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