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Trade the News - European Market Update: BOE Changes its Tone in its Quarterly Report European Market
Update: BOE Changes its Tone in its Quarterly Report
Â· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
Â· GE Q3
Preliminary GDP: Q/Q 0.7% v 0.7%e || Y/Y 2.5% v 2.5%e || Y/Y nsa 2.4% v 2.
Â· German economic growth appears to have been driven by domestic
demand along with increased investment in equipment and construction.
Â· FR Q3 Preliminary GDP: Q/Q 0.7% v 0.7%e || Y/Y 2.1% v 2.
Â· FR Sep Current Account: -â‚¬2.3B v -â‚¬1.7B
Â· French GDP
was roughly in line with expectations. The stronger-than-expected y/y rise
was led by an increase in domestic demand, as well as increased household
Â· SP Oct CPI: M/M 1.3% v 1.3%e || Y/Y 3.6% v 3.
Â· SP Oct CPI Harmonized: M/M 1.3% v 1.3%e || Y/Y 3.6% v 3.
Â· The rise in Spanish consumer prices during the month of
October was in line with expectations, largely the result of an increase in
food and drink prices, which rose by 5.5% m/m compared to 2.4% in September.
Â· IT Oct Final CPI: M/M 0.3% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 2.1% v 2.
Â· IT Oct Final CPI Harmonized: M/M 0.8% v 0.8%e || 2.3% v 2.
Â· UK Oct Claimant Count Rate: 2.6% v 2.6%e
Â· UK Oct
Jobless Claims Change: -9.9K v -6.0Ke || Prior revised from -12.8K to -13.
Â· UK Sep Avg. Earnings ex-Bonus: 4.1% v 4.0%e
Â· UK Sep Avg.
Earnings inc. Bonus: 3.7% v 3.7%e
Â· UK Sep ILO Unemployment Rate 5.
4% v 5.4%e
Â· Average earnings excluding bonus rose by more than
expected to its highest level since March, led by the services sector,
which rose to 4.3% from 3.9% in August, and the private services sector,
which rose to 4.7% from 4.1% in August. The excluding bonus reading, which
was expected to rise, remained unchanged from August as a small gain in
public sector wages was neutralized by a small loss in manufacturing wages.
Â· EU Q3 Advanced GDP: Q/Q 0.7% v 0.6%e || Y/Y 2.6% v 2.
Â· Advanced GDP figures show a recovery from the second-quarter
decline. The q/q exceeded estimates with the aid of strong readings in
Germany, and the Netherlands.
Â· *** COMMENTS/SPEAKERS
Â· GE Economic Minister: The German economy is still on a robust
Â· GE Deputy Economic Minister: China's planned shift of
FX reserves into Euros could further hurt German exporters
Forecasts gold prices dropping to $725-$750 by the end of the
Â· BOE Quarterly Inflation Report: Sees CPI at 2.0% assuming at
least one rate cut in 2008
Â· BOE Quarterly Inflation Report: CPI to
pick-up before slowing to its target in the mid-term
Â· BOE Quarterly
Inflation Report: Inflation risks are balanced
Â· BOE Quarterly
Inflation Report: There are signs that economic growth has started to
Â· BOE Quarterly Inflation Report: Global commodity prices
continue to present upside inflation pressures
Â· BOE Quarterly
Inflation Report: Weak wage data suggests growing wage
Â· BOE King: Sees difficult decisions in the months
Â· BOE King: The near-term inflation outlook is less
Â· BOE King: House price inflation is easing
FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Â· Germany sold â‚¬5.98B in new
4.00% January 2018 bunds with an average yield of 4.19% and a bid-to-cover
of 2.0x. The bid-to-cover compares to 1.9x on the previous auction, which
was for the old issue.
Â· Italy sold â‚¬2.5B in 4.25% October 2012 BTPs
with an average yield of 4.14% and a bid-to-cover of 1.53x. The bid-to-
cover compares to 1.38x at the previous auction.
Â· On the currency
front, the rise in global markets helped to keep carry trades in tact. The
Yen has been softer throughout the session, giving back gains made since
last Friday. The $/Â¥ tested its prior August sub-prime lows overnight.
There was increased commentary regarding the effects of the weak Dollar
overnight, with Germany's Infineon and India's Tata Motors acknowledging
that the Dollar's decline has weighed down on business. Also on the
currency front overnight, the â‚¬/Â£ rose to new 3-year highs.
Â· European fixed-income futures are trading lower in the session on
the back of higher equity markets. Bund futures were largely unaffected by
data overnight, but did gain some upside momentum following the 10-year
auction, as well as the 5-year auction in Italy. Over in the UK gilts were
also trading lower in the session, but gained upside momentum following the
BOE's quarterly inflation report. The BOE noted that inflation will return
to its 2.0% target assuming at least once interest rate cut in 2008, a
departure from its previous report in August, where the BOE saw the need
for one more interest rate hike.
Â· Front month crude oil futures are
trading higher in the session after the OPEC secretary general reiterated
overnight that he does not see the need for an output hike. The secretary
general also said that he does not agree with the IEA's lower demand
forecast, and indicated that inventories are at acceptable levels. Gold is
trading higher in the session supported by the stronger Euro, which has in
turn lent upside momentum to silver and copper prices as well.
Â· Thus far the session can be summarized by tight, strong equity
market trading, slightly higher commodity prices, and a softer Yen. The
bond auctions in the Euro-Zone were relatively favorable. Economic data in
the Euro-Zone was roughly in line with consensus expectations, and was
boring overall. The session has been void of comments from European
officials. Over in the UK the economic data was slightly more interesting,
with the focus falling on the higher average earnings data (including
bonus). The BOE's quarterly report was had a dovish tone overall, and was a
departure from the August quarterly report.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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