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Trade the News - U.S. Market Update U.S. Market
Dow -23 S&P +0.3 NASDAQ -10.5
- U.S. equity markets look to
consolidate yesterday's move helped by strong performance overseas. Asian
markets led the way with the Hang Seng and Shanghai up nearly 5% while the
Nikkei posted solid 2.5% gains. U.S. Indices opened higher led again by
tech and financials but as the morning has worn on sellers have stepped in.
Equity futures popped to their best levels following some reassuringly
tame PPI data. BSC +4% is leading the brokers after the CFO indicated the
worst may be in the rear view mirror, and put the Co. total ABS CDO
exposure at $884M v the $2B figure in late August. Treasury futures
initially sold off after the open but have since recovered most of their
losses. Fed fund futures have ticked noticeably lower despite the decent
inflation data with the Jan contract now projecting roughly a 70% chance of
another cut by year-end. Commodity futures are recovering from yesterday's
collapse. Oil futures are off their best levels but crude, gasoline, and
heating oil have all gained between 1.5 to 2%. Dec gold is also coming off
its best levels but is still up 1.5% to $811. Copper briefly spiked on
reports of a significant earthquake in Chile but has since come back from
those levels to add 2% on the session.
- There was no overall theme,
but plenty of news to drive volatility higher among numerous currency
pairs. GBP exhibited a high degree of choppiness after the BOE's quarterly
inflation report referred to a possible interest rate cut by Q1 2008. The
GBP slide among its major pairs as GBP/USD dropped 200+ pips to tests the 2.
0650 level. EUR/GBP hit 4-year highs above the 0.71 level. The JPY
weakened on carry-related price movement throughout the Asian/European
morning after the strong US performance on Tuesday. The USD/JPY retested
the 111.60 level, which was the former post Aug subprime lows as global
equity markets continued to move grid higher. Yen recovered from its worst
session levels after an EU draft document noted that the EU would seek an
accelerated FX appreciation from China at its Nov summit meeting with China.
This hawkish EU stance on China helped to unwind carry trades during last
Friday's volatile markets. The China State Council noted overnight that it
would continue to Strengthen and Improve Macro Controls and ensure basic
Price Stability. BoC's Jenkins stated that the US housing market problems
are having an effect on the Canadian economy, particularly the timber
industry. BOC stated that a stronger CAD poses risk of lowering output and
that a weaker USD raises risk of global disorderly adjustments. The EUR was
probing fresh all-time highs against the USD. EUR aided by various
European GDP data releases in today's session. Fed Fisher said in a speech
in Australia that weaker USD contributes to inflation concerns but
countered with comment that a weaker USD aids exporters. IMF's Deppler
noted that rising inflation risks in Europe complicated the situation for
ECB. ECB's Hurley noted that one "Cannot rule out" further Euro FX
appreciation during his speech today. European fixed income was off
session lows aided by The BOE quarterly inflation report. Traders noted
that the BOE Changes its Tone in its Quarterly Report. The BOE noted that
inflation will return to its 2.0% target assuming at least once interest
rate cut in 2008, a departure from its previous report in August, where the
BOE saw the need for one more interest rate hike. Dec Gilts up 10 ticks at
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.
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