Thursday November 15, 2007 - 03:48:35 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
||As we approach key resistances at 111.94-112.48 we should be aware of the risk of losses again|
||Gains have developed well and have fallen just short of the 111.94 resistance. Further resistance is found at 112.22-48. We have also broken below an FXS-RSI support line. Thus any gains should be short lived and thus be careful with long positions. Only a break above 112.50 would suggest that the 109.11 low completed the entire downward move. If so, then next resistance is around 113.27-36 which should provide a pullback. Above there sees 114.00. |
||Losses look as if they should be restricted to 108.30-33 and from there look for additional gains. Back above 112.50 will help with the next resistance at 113.27-36 and eventually back to 115.91. (15th November)|
||With the break of an FXS-RSI support line, a bearish divergence and the proximity of the 111.94 target (max 112.43) we must be aware of the immediate risk of reversal lower. However, given that we still havenâ€™t quite met targets Iâ€™d prefer to wait for a break of 110.56-64. If seen then look for a decline down towards the 109.11 low before a small pullback. Overall this should mean an eventual move to the 108.30-33 target. |
||It seems the cycles were misjudged but from where we are now I canâ€™t get much more bearish with the 108.96 corrective low almost attained and a major support at 108.30-33. (13th November)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We are close to a decisive move. I still favor the correction edging higher in Wave iv to the 50% retracement at 111.94 and 58.6% at 112.43. From there look for Wave v to develop to 108.33.
A 76.4% projection in Wave (v) lower lies at 108.33 and a 161.8% projection in Wave (c) is at 108.30 so this appears to be the favored target.
Thus only a break above 112.50 will mean that the 109.11 low provided the low in this decline and we should then see a rally to the intermediate Wave (b) at 115.91.
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