Friday November 16, 2007 - 04:00:23 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||Mixed â€“ waiting for breaks|
||The sideways consolidation still leaves the picture a little awkward. The downside could easily move to 1.1161 but then recover. Only an earlier break above 1.1262 would extend the gains from yesterdayâ€™s low to the 1.1300-10 area. However, we will need to be careful there as this could cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will need a move above 1.1310 and if seen would allow the upside to extend more strongly towards 1.1381 and probably 1.1423. Further resistance is at 1.1465.|
||The low at 1.1176 may well have formed a major low but we need this confirmed given the bearish cycles. I see room for a move to 1.1423-65 but it is only a break above here that would trigger 1.1623+. (15th November)|
||Still no break below 1.1204-10 which is required to take us down to the 1.1161 support. However, take care here as this could cause a move back higher. Only breach would maintain the downward momentum for 1.1127 and probably 1.1075. However, by then I think weâ€™ll be at risk of having seen a major low. Next support is at 1.1014. |
||Test has been seen of 1.1187 and at most I see room for a test of the 1.1075-00 area and will expect a reversal higher. Only below 1.1075 would maintain downward momentum for 1.1014 at least. (13th November)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The question is whether weâ€™re going to see the 1.1075-00 target seen directly or whether we are just seeing a more choppy correction in Wave iv.
If weâ€™re going to see a rally to the 41.4%-50.0% retracement in Wave iv at 1.1381-1.1423 (58.6% at 1.1465) then we should ideally see the 1.1200-10 corrective lows hold. Back above 1.1299 would trigger that test.
Any earlier move to the 1.1176 low or the 23.6% expansion at 1.1161 would limit any upside to just above the 1.1300 peak.
Below 1.1161 would target the 1.1075-00 area directly.
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