Monday November 19, 2007 - 11:53:04 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 16-Nov-2007....1155 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1178/82...Sell a Rally
R: 1.1200 / 1.1240 / 1.1280
S: 1.1151 / 1.1100
USD-CHF had a small decline last week, following on from the big fall the week before. It continues to be in a downtrend and hit its lowest level since Apr-1995 on Friday. The current decline is targeting 1.1100, the low last seen in Apr-1995. This could be tested later this week. On the upside the important Resistance this week would come at 1.1310-20, which falls on a trendline on the Daily Candles joining the Highs of 1.1778 (24-Oct) and 1.1641 (01-Nov). A move above the latter needs to be seen to question the downside potential for the week.
For the day, the immediate Resistance would come in at 1.1200. Above that the Resistance would come in at 1.1240, on a small trendline on the daily joining the highs of 1.1347 (08-Nov) and 1.1300 (13-Nov). On the downside the Support is expected at 1.1150, on another small trendline on the daily joining the lows of 1.1189 (09-Nov) and 1.1159 (16-Nov). Below that the Support would come in at 1.1108-00, the statistically projected Max Low for the day.
Please note that the USD-CHF is now coming close to the level of 1.10, where a huge number of Option Knock-Outs are present. Since most of these KOs have been SOLD to Corporates, one might expect the Banks to try and trigger the KOs.
The bias is bearish and we would like to sell a small rally.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 10K at 1.1230, SL 1.1320, TP 1.1110
GBP-USD @ 2.0523/27.....Buy a dip
R: 2.0570-80 / 2.0620
S: 2.0450 / 2.0399
GBP-USD had a sharp fall last week and hit a low of 2.0353, before bouncing back on Friday. This week, the GBP could be a little pressured once again, but is expected to hold above 2.0353-40, which falls on a trendline on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 1.9652 (17-Aug) and 1.9879 (18-Sep). On the upside the Resistance would come in at 2.0620 and 2.0691, the 20-Day MA. Choppy moves are expected, rather than a clear direction this week.
GBP-USD fell intraday to a low of 2.0450, and that is currently holding. Below that the Support would come in at 2.0399, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistances are at 2.0570-80, near the 200-MA on the 4-Hourly. Above that the Resistance is at 2.0620. We are willing to buy a dip.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 2.0428, SL 2.0300, TP Open
AUD-USD @ 0.8903/07...Support at 0.8851
R: 0.8950 / 0.9015
S: 0.8851 / 0.8816
AUD-USD had a sharp fall last week, with the greater part of the fall having been seen last Monday. There was a consolidation in the 4 days thereafter, within 0.9076 and 0.8754. This consolidation could continue this week as well. A big directional move may be seen when this range is broken. Trading the range, while it holds may be a safe bet this week.
The pair has been under pressure so far in the day and looks to be headed towards 0.8851, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 0.8754 (12-Nov) and 0.8816 (16-Nov). Below that the Support would be at 0.8820. Today the Resistance is at 0.8950. Above that the Resistance would come in at 0.9015, the statistically projected Max High for the day. The 200-MA on the 4-Hourly is also at 0.9051.
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