Sunday September 26, 2004 - 11:54:37 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 27th September 2004 Price: 1.2625
Resistance: 1.2635 ... 1.2655 ... 1.2695 ... 1.2715
Support....: 1.2605 ... 1.2565 ... 1.2545 ... 1.2510
Cautiously bullish to 1.2700-20 which we feel should cap
We have seen a strong recovery from the 1.2509 low which has tested the previous resistance at 1.2652. However, we feel this move is not complete and as such we look for 1.2605 to support and for the gains to move higher to the 1.2695-1.2715 area by late today. Performance at this area is important. For now we feel it will cause a cap and generate a correction lower at least and possibly a moderately strong decline. Further resistance is found at 1.2770-90.
We feel that while early trading could see some drift lower, this should be held by 1.2605 from where a move higher to 1.2695-1.2715 is expected. Thus from this higher resistance we would look for losses to develop which should get back to 1.2600-20 at least. Only directly below 1.2600 would suggest losses moving back to the 1.2545 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd September 2004
With the breakdown of the ascending triangle structure we need to provide a new count. We are rather reluctant to get too bearish at this stage and have re-labeled the 1.2772 high as a Wave x with yesterday's decline either completing Wave -a- or we should see that low soon around 1.2465-95. From here we look for Wave -b- to develop which would have resistance at both 1.2645 and 1.2700-20. From there look for Wave -c- lower to develop.
27th September 2004
The 1.2645-50 area has succeeded in holding thus far though looks under pressure after Friday's rally from 1.2509. There is also Fibonacci resistance at 1.2715 - an area which has provided a broad pivot area. Thus we are mixed with the shorter term wave count. The chart shows wat we feel is implied - which is that we are seeing an expanded flat Wave (b) which has potential cap somewhere between 1.2650 and 1.2715. Anywhere above here would suggest that Wave -c- was completed at 1.2509 and would then imply a move back to 1.2845-55 in Wave -d- which would then suggest a brief pullback before the larger break higher.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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