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Tuesday November 20, 2007 - 12:10:58 GMT
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Trade the News - European Market Update: Dollar Broadly Weaker After GCC Comments in Al-Riyadh Newspaper

European Market Update: Dollar Broadly Weaker After GCC Comments in Al-Riyadh Newspaper


· GE Oct Producer Prices: M/M 0.4% v 0.3%e || 1.7% v 1.6%e

· German producer prices rose by slightly more than expected during the month of October boosted by increasing food prices, and record high energy prices. As seen in many parts of the Euro-Zone over the past few months food and energy prices continue to present inflationary pressures.

· SZ Oct Trade Balance [chf]: 1.56B v 1.49Be || Prior revised from 1.80B to 1.71B

· NO Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.1%e || Prior revised from 0.9 to 1.0%

· IT Sep Industrial Orders: M/M 0.3% v -0. 6%e || Prior revised from -0.3% to -0.8% |||| Y/Y 2.8% v 5.7%e

· IT Sep Industrial Sales: M/M -3.6% v -1.7%e || Prior revised from 4.2% to 4.0% |||| Y/Y 2.3% v 5.2%e

· As usual, the notoriously volatile industrial orders and sales figures were mixed. The foreign orders component of industrial orders rose to 14.4% y/y from 1.4% in August, but was not enough to outweigh declines in the other components. Overall, the readings were in line with their recent trend over the past five years.

· UK Oct Public Finances: -£4.8B v -£8.0Be

· UK Oct Public Sector Net Borrowing: -£1.0B v -£3.0Be || Prior revised from £6.9B to £7. 2B

· UK Oct Preliminary M4 Money Supply: M/M 0.1% v 0.9%e || Prior revised from 1.0% to 0.9% |||| Y/Y 11.8% v 12.8%e

· UK Oct Preliminary M4 Sterling Lending: £19.8B v £20.5Be || Prior revised from £24. 5B v £23.7B

· UK Oct BSA Mortgage Approvals: £3.98B v £4.26B prior || Prior revised from £4.26B to £4.23B


· GCC Official: Saudi Arabia may have started studying a revaluation of the Riyal [Al-Ridayh]

· GCC Official: The Gulf states want to move towards a basket of currencies [Al-Ridayh]

· GCC Official: Qatar and UAE among the states keen to revalue their currencies [Al-Ridayh]

· GCC Official: There is a strong possibility that Saudi Arabia will stay with its current exchange rate policy [Al- Ridayh]

· GCC Official: Other Gulf states will not stand idle if the USD continues to weaken, even if Saudi Arabia maintains current policy [Al- Ridayh]

· ECB Quaden: The weakening of the USD should not become excessive, but is normal under US economic slowdown scenario

· ECB Quaden: Reiterates view that strong euro offsets higher oil prices, makes imports cheaper; Notes that it hurts some sectors

· IMF Says It Supports HK Commitment To USD/HKD Peg

· Russia: Will certainly suspend adherence to the arms treaty [wires]

· GE Labor Agency: The decline in unemployment will slow down


· On the currency front the Dollar is broadly weaker following the publication of comments from a GCC official in the Al-Riyadh newspaper overnight. The Dollar quickly declined to new post World War II lows against the Swiss Franc, while the Euro posted fresh all-time highs against the Dollar. A Saudi official later denied that the country was studying the Dollar depeg. The Dollar weakened further after the ECB's Quaden said that the weakening Dollar should not become excessive, noting that the Dollar's decline is normal under the US economic slowdown scenario.

· Front month crude oil futures are trading higher in the session after a 5.1 magnitude earthquake hit an area in Iran's oil rich southwestern province of Khuzestan on Tuesday. In OPEC speak, an Indonesian official said overnight that he would support any OPEC hike, adding that it wants its crude oil price within a $60-$65/barrel range.

· Fixed income futures are trading mixed in a relatively volatile session spending time in both positive and negative territory as sub-prime jitters continue to cast a shadow of doubt over the market. Looking ahead, much of the focus for the remainder of the day lies on the release of the FOMC minutes during the US session. In new supply the DMO sold £750M in new 0.75% November 2047 I/L gilts with an average yield of 0.831% and a bid-to-cover of 2.42x.

· The general market tone has been one of continued market jitters as the fear of further sub-prime losses is on everyone's mind. The Dollar is weaker on the back of speculation around a possible depegging in the Middle East, as well as rumors of a possible surprise Fed meeting today, which has added some upside momentum to the equity markets despite the decline in the financials.


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