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Tuesday November 20, 2007 - 14:32:51 GMT

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Dollar falls against the Yen as risk aversion rises

News and Events:

The Dollar declined against the Yen on Monday, but held steady versus the Euro as a global rout in stock markets and higher oil prices raised concern about the health of the US economy and left investors wary of risky trades. Talk that Middle East oil exporters may discuss abandoning fixed exchange rates to the dollar next month also added to negative Dollar sentiment as did continued market expectations for lower US interest rates. But increasing risk aversion helped keep the dollar steady against the Euro and a basket of major currencies as investors repatriated money from overseas trades. Forex investors grew particularly cautious after Goldman Sachs added US banking giant Citigroup to its "sell" list, saying the bank would likely face more mortgage-related losses next year. In yesterday trading, UsdJpy fell 1.12% to 109.82, edging back toward an 18-month low of 109.12 hit last week. Analyst said traders could test support around that level over the next few sessions. UsdChf hit a 12-year low of 1.1149 before closing at 1.1151 -0.24%. A fall beneath 1.11 would mark a record low. Both the Jpy and Chf gain when investors shed risk because the low-yielding currencies are often used to finance purchases of higher-yield -- and higher-risk -- assets. The high-yielding AudUsd dropped 1.08% at 0.8832. The UsdCad rose 1.08%to 0.9840. The EurJpy fell 1.09% to 161.08 but EurUsd was little changed at 1.4668. Policy-makers from 20 industrialized and developing economies did not single out the Dollar at a weekend meeting in South Africa. But markets expect Dollar weakness and inflation to soon force Middle East oil exporters to stop pegging their currencies to the Dollar. Kuwait made that move earlier this year and the United Arab Emirates said last week it may follow suit. The Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, is expected to review currency issues at a Dec. 3-4 meeting. Delegates at a weekend meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries clashed over whether to consider pricing oil against a basket of currencies to counter a weak US Dollar. Some Federal Reserve officials have stressed inflation risks to the US economy, but markets still widely expect the central bank will slash 4.5% benchmark rates by 0.25 at its December meeting.


Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

09:00 NOK 3Q Gross Domestic Product 1.20% vs 0.9%
09:30 GBP Oct PSNB £-3B vs £ 6.87B (MoM)
09:30 GBP Oct PSNCR £-8.25B vs £ 8.96B (MoM)
11:00 GBP Nov CBI Industrial Trends Survey -9 vs -6
12:00 CAD Oct Bank of Canada CPI Core 0.1% vs 0.4% (MoM)
12:00 CAD Oct Bank of Canada CPI Core 2% vs 2% (YoY)
12:00 CAD Oct CPI Inflation 0.2% vs 0.2% (MoM)
12:00 CAD Oct CPI Inflation 2.8% vs 2.5% (YoY)
13:30 USD Oct Building Permit 1200k vs 1261k
13:30 USD Oct Housing Starts 1170k vs 1191k
19:00 USD Minutes of FOMC October 31st meeting
22:00 USD ABC Wash Post Index -18 vs -17
23:50 JPY Sept All Industry Activity Index -1.6% vs +1%

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Euro remains in a positive trend. It set new record high this morning at 1.4766. Last week, it found support on 1.4520 and consolidated around 1.4650 (initial support). On the downside, only a return below 1.4500 and further drop to 1.4280 former resistance would threaten the uptrend. This could open the way down toward 1.4000 nearby support and 1.4125 trendline support. Initial support holds 1.4650 strong support.

GbpUsd Following early November largest drop since October 22nd, Cable found support last week around 2.0400. On the upside, 2.1161 high (Friday 9th) marks the strong resistance before putting 2.1355 May 11th 1981 into focus. Initial resistance holds 2.0844 Nov 14th high. On the downside, a strong return below 2.0525 may open a market reversal. But it would need renewed pressure below 2.0200 and further weakness toward 2.0000 psychological levels to validate a downtrend. Initial support holds 2.0525.

UsdJpy Trend remains bearish. Last week pressure pushed toward 111.60 (August 17 low) and posted a new ultimate 109.13 low. Initial support holds 109.55 (Nov 13th low). On the upside, market needs a return over 114 and 116 to undermine the actual downtrend. This may open the way toward 117.63 resistance. Initial resistance holds 111.75.

UsdChf Downtrend remains heavy. It posted a fresh low 1.1095 this morning, breaking toward 12-year low 1.1110 from April 1995. Extreme target holds 1.1000 key level. Initial resistance holds 1.1300 (12th Nov) high. It would also need a return over 1.1500 and 1.1640 level to relieve actual bear threat.

Resistance and Support:

1.5000 K 2.1161 T 117.63 S 1.1640 T
1.4970 S 2.0922 S 114.00 P 1.1500 P
1.4782 M 2.0844 S 111.75 M 1.1300 S
1.4745 2.0625 110.40 1.1115
1.4650 S 2.0525 M 109.57 M 1.1110 T
1.4520 S 2.0200 S 109.13 T 1.1000 K
1.4500 K 2.0000 P 108.77 S 1.0900 M
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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