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Monday September 27, 2004 - 07:29:58 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies by Robert P. Balan at Saxo Bank

GBP/USD improves technically, but may dip to 1.8000 before heading higher; EUR/USD may yet decline to 1.2230 - 1.2220

U.K. mortgage lending probably grew in August at the slowest pace since May 2003, while house prices were likely unchanged in September as higher borrowing costs crimped consumer demand.



DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: Sept 27 - Europe



- For the first week in eight, foreign investors sold more Japanese shares than they purchased during the week ending Sept. 17, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo. Forty-three percent of the 68 traders, investors and strategists polled Sept. 24 advised selling the yen versus the dollar, up from 39 percent a week earlier. The percentage of those who said to sell the yen increased for a third week. The survey also suggested the dollar will drop versus the euro. The BOJ's quarterly index of confidence among large manufacturers probably rose to a 13-year high of 23 in September from 22 in June, according to the median forecast of economists.


- U.K. mortgage lending probably grew in August at the slowest pace since May 2003, while house prices were likely unchanged in September as higher borrowing costs crimped consumer demand, surveys of economists showed. Lending for home purchases grew by 8 billion pounds ($14.4 billion) after an 8.6 billion-pound increase in July, according to the median forecast of economists. House prices, measured by Nationwide Building Society, failed to rise in September for the first time since October 2001, a separate survey of 13 economists showed. The Bank of England has raised its benchmark interest rate five times since November to 4.75 percent to slow a five-year housing boom in which prices doubled. Any drop in new mortgage lending would combine with mounting evidence of a weakening housing market to indicate the central bank won't lift the key interest rate higher than 5 percent.


- Business confidence in Germany, France and Italy, the biggest of the 12 economies using the euro, probably fell this month, suggesting economic growth may struggle to accelerate, surveys of economists showed. The Ifo institute's confidence index, based on a survey of 7,000 companies, probably slipped for a second month to 95.1 from 95.3 in August, the median of 46 forecasts gathered by Bloomberg showed. France's executive confidence index may have fallen to 105 from 106, according to the median forecast of 25 economists. An Italian index probably fell to 97.5 from 98.3. Record oil costs and stagnating consumption in countries such as Germany are tempering the pace of growth in the $8.7 trillion economy of the euro countries.


- Crude oil futures rose close to a record in New York amid concern that U.S. inventories may decline for a ninth week because of the slow recovery of production in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ivan shut offshore fields. U.S. stockpiles fell close to a 29-year low in the week ended Sept. 17 after Ivan hit the Gulf, which accounts for a quarter of U.S. output. Gulf of Mexico production ended last week 28 percent below normal levels, according to the Minerals Management Service, part of the U.S. Interior Department. Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as 48 cents, or 1 percent, to $49.36 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $49.31 a barrel at 10:14 a.m. Singapore time.


- U.S. oil inventories should quickly recover to normal levels after Hurricane Ivan cut supply to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as many tankers are heading to the U.S. from the Middle East, Qatar's oil minister said. "Recovery from Ivan will be quick -- the storm is over,'' Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said in an interview in Abu Dhabi. ``There is plenty of oil supply on its way to U.S. refiners.'' Crude oil rose to a record closing price of $48.88 a barrel on Sept. 24 amid concern that damage caused by the hurricane will result in insufficient stockpiles when refineries boost production of heating oil. U.S. crude-oil stockpiles fell 9.1 million barrels to 269.5 million in the week ended Sept. 17, the Energy Department said. Inventories are 5.8 million barrels away from being the lowest since September 1975.



FX Market Summary -


The yen may weaken against the dollar and euro in Asia on concern rising oil prices will hinder Japan's economic recovery, discouraging investment in the country's assets. The yen and Nikkei 225 Stock Average both dropped for a second week last week. Overseas investors turned net sellers of stocks in the week ended Sept. 17, a government report showed. The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey Friday probably will show confidence among large manufacturers had the smallest gain in more than a year as crude oil futures rose to near a record high. Against the dollar, the yen was at 110.60 at 11:25 a.m. in Tokyo, from 110.63 late Friday in New York. It was also at 135.88 per euro, from 135.78.

Canada's dollar had its biggest weekly gain in three months after Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge suggested he may raise the target interest rate further this year. The currency ended the week above 78 U.S. cents for the first time since January. Traders boosted bets on rate increases at the bank's two remaining meetings this year, interest-rate futures show. The Sept. 8 increase to 2.25 percent was the first in 17 months. The U.S. Federal Reserve this week lifted its target to 1.75 percent. The Canadian dollar can go pretty far, past the January high. The market perception is that the Canadian central bank will be much more aggressive than the Fed. Canada's dollar this week rose 1.8 percent to 78.49 U.S. cents in Toronto from 77.08 U.S. cents. It closed above 78 U.S. cents on Sept. 22 for the first time since Jan. 13.

Friday's summary: the dollar traded in a tight band against the majors for most of the day, Friday. At the end of regular trading, the greenback was lower by 0.1% against the yen and virtually unchanged versus the euro. The single European currency gave up some of its newfound gains as markets reversed their view on the dollar, anticipating further rate hikes from the FOMC. In the U.K., the turn in the housing market, and its impact on the future course of monetary policy, has become accepted fact on the currency markets. As a result, most market participants expect one further rate hike, but the likelihood of others has been unwound. So instead of weakening this week, the pound has gained largely as a result of dollar weakness.



Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the slide in treasury bond prices may extend further, and so the euro may gave up the gains made during the bounce from Friday's 1.2242 low. It might yet fall further towards 1.2230 - 1.2220. Nonetheless, we expect a new recovery thereafter, and the upmove may go beyond 1.2360, which effectively reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains in effect still -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we re-emphasize the longer-term view -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sideways sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.


- GBP/USD - Cable pushed higher further in the back of news that U.K. mortgage lending probably grew in August, albeit at the slowest pace since May 2003. Support did appear at slightly above 1.8000, and has been higher since then. Nonetheless, allow for another go at 1.8000 - 1.7980 later in the trading day. Technicals are positive again, fundamentals have remained fairly positive or at worst neutral -- the uptrend remains north-bound. The recent breach of the 1.8050 top is a big technical plus, and a break of 1.8090 may trigger a new series of advances. As we said earlier, there is no big barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to consolidate sideways -- no change in view. But it may yet proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.


- USD/CHF - no change in view -- the currency will probably rise further to 1.2660 - 1.2680 later in the day to complete the countertrend rally. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the sell-off has indeed resumed with a vengeance, but found temporary support at 1.2724. Momentum projections suggests that it might head towards the 1.2685 trough at least -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.


- AUD/USD - the currency pair did pull back to .7120 -- it may yet extend to .7100. But the rally should resume thereafter. A rally towards .7300 - .7400 is probably now on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.


- NZD/USD - the Kiwi consolidates from .6691 top and may pullback further to .6650 -- no change in view. The Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has been to 136.50 and may yet correct back to 135.40 - 135.20. But the uptrend is still looking good -- its open waters until 137.00 - 138.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the cross firmed up at 1.5460 and trades higher -- we still see a continued rise towards the 1.5510 top from here. The cross should then push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - support at .6800 did not materialize either, and so we prepare for further declines to .6770 later in the week. The uptrend may resume from there and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend took out 200.00 on Friday and currently consolidates sideways. The cross should eventually rise, and make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross found a new support at 2.2620 and soared to 2.2800, which conveniently took out the 2.2780 top -- we have reinstated the 2.3000 target. If 2.3000 is taken out -- and we believe there is a good chance that the cross will eventually rise beyond it -- the the next target may be 2.3400.




=================================================



DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: Sept 24 - New York



- Orders increased at U.S. factories in August for a range of durable goods, including automobiles, metals and communications equipment, evidence manufacturing will help drive the economic expansion. Orders rose 2.3 percent when transportation equipment is excluded, the most since March, after being unchanged in July, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Including transportation, orders fell 0.5 percent in August after a 1.8 percent increase in July that was led by a surge in bookings for commercial aircraft. The numbers suggest the U.S. manufacturing economy, the world's largest, gained strength last month. The Federal Reserve's `beige book' survey of the U.S. economy for August found that makers of durable goods, expensive products designed to last more than three years, led an increase in work at factories.


- Inflation in Germany, which accounts for about a third of the economy of the dozen euro nations, slowed in September, led by a decline in the cost of package tours and seasonal food. The German inflation rate slowed to 1.8 percent from 2.0 percent in August, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said in a preliminary report. Economists had expected inflation remain unchanged, according to the median of forecasts. Prices declined from the previous month for the first time since November, falling 0.3 percent from August. Rising unemployment has tempered consumer spending in Europe's largest economy, making it harder for companies to pass on higher energy costs. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said earlier today that European inflation will drop below the ECB's 2 percent limit next year.


- Japan's services industry contracted for a second month in three in July as companies reduced spending on computer software, telecommunications and financial services. The tertiary index, a measure of service companies' activity, fell 0.8 percent from June, the trade ministry said in Tokyo. Economists forecast a median 0.2 percent increase. The all-industry index, which includes industrial production and construction, fell 0.6 percent in July. Services activity may slide further as Japanese consumers reduce spending because of falling wages and higher social security premiums. Wages have risen in just three months in the past three years, and workers will have to make bigger contributions to their retirement plans.


- New Zealand's economic growth slowed in the second quarter from its fastest pace in four years as factories cut production and interest-rate increases crimped consumer spending. Gross domestic product expanded 0.9 percent in the three months ended June 30 after growing a revised 2.1 percent in the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington. The economy grew 5.7 percent from a year earlier. The report suggests central bank Governor Alan Bollard's five rate increases this year are slowing the economy. Bollard has said he may raise borrowing costs again to slow inflation after the jobless rate fell to a 17-year low of 4 percent in the second quarter.




FX Market Summary -


The U.S. dollar has been mixed showing weakness against the euro but gaining against the yen.

The greenback was lower in early morning trading against the euro following a rally in Treasuries. Yields for the ten-year Treasury hovered near their lowest level since April. Lower Treasury yields have reduced demand for dollars relative to other currencies as euro zone notes look more attractive.

Treasuries rallied after the Federal Reserve Bank pronounced that inflationary pressures as well as inflation expectations have eased. The statement prompted markets to believe that there is further room for an accommodative policy stance for the Fed even though these expectations run somewhat counter to the Fed’s remarks in the minutes of the August meeting, in which the Fed sees “the need for significant cumulative policy tightening.” Still, markets are back to expecting only a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

The slide of the greenback accelerated as durable goods orders for August showed a significant decline of 0.5% compared to July defying market expectations for steady orders. The effect was mitigated however by a 2.3% advance in orders excluding transportation, which was better than anticipated. The euro was fetching 1.2342 a few moments back after opening the day in Europe at 1.2265.

The dollar fell against the euro as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held close to their lowest since April, sapping demand from investors looking for higher returns. The U.S. currency declined in three of the past four days after the Federal Reserve said inflation expectations ``have eased.'' Benchmark 10-year Treasuries yields yesterday reached 3.96 percent, the lowest since April 1 and below yields on government securities of the same maturity sold by five of the 12 euro-region countries.

The Japanese yen has come under pressure amid soft economic data, falling equity markets and rising energy prices. Japan is the world’s third largest importer of crude oil after the U.S. and China, which overtook Japan only a few months ago. Moreover, Japan imports almost all of its petroleum rendering its economy particularly vulnerable to high energy prices. Thus, higher crude oil prices are a severe downward risk for Japan’s economy and by extension the yen. Pressure on the yen was reinforced as the government reported a contraction in the country’s service industry. Services declined by 0.8% in July compared to June. The contraction took markets by surprise. Markets had anticipated a modest expansion of about 0.2%. One U.S. dollar was fetching 110.48 Japanese yen a few moments ago.

The yen headed for a second losing week against the dollar in Asia on speculation rising oil prices will undermine a recovery in the Japanese economy, causing the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to extend a one-month low. The yen also may weaken after a government report showed Japan's services industry unexpectedly shrank in July, adding to concerns of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Confidence among large manufactures will drop through December, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey will show on Oct. 1, according to a survey of economists.



Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the short-term uptrend was reinstated, a great deal of thanks to the weak durable goods data. But it was stymied by a mini-slide in treasury bond prices, and looks to consolidate its gains after marginally breaching the 1.2350 top. It might fall further towards 1.2250 - 1.2230. Nonetheless, we expect a new upmove thereafter to go beyond 1.2360, which effectively reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains in effect therefore -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sideways sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.


- GBP/USD - Cable pushed higher on strong note as the high-yielders came back in vogue. A small correction is holding it back -- support may be seen at 1.8000, but technicals are positive again, fundamentals are mercifully neutral to positive at the moment, and the recent breach of the 1.8050 top may trigger a new series of advances. As we said earlier, there is no barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500.


- USD/JPY - no change in view -- the currency pair continues to consolidate, but may yet proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.


- USD/CHF - no change in view -- there's a slight adjustment in the short-term view: the currency will probably rise further to 1.2660 - 1.2680 to complete the countertrend rally. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.


- USD/CAD -- the sell-off has resumed with a vengeance. Momentum projections suggests that it might head towards the 1.2685 trough at least -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.


- AUD/USD - the currency pair has been to .7170, and may pulle back to .7120 - 7110. But the rally should resume thereafter. A rally towards .7300 - .7400 is now on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.


- NZD/USD - the uptrend has brought the Kiwi to as high as .6691 and currently consolidates -- it may pullback further to .6650. The Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has been to 136.50 and corrects back to 135.60 - 135.50. But the uptrend is still looking good -- its open waters until 137.00 - 138.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 138.00 major resistance.


- EUR/CHF - no change in view -- the cross continues to trade sideways with support showing up at 1.5465 -- we still see a continued rise towards the 1.5510 top thereafter. The cross should continue to push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.


- EUR/GBP - the base at .6825 did not hold, but may find support at .6800. The uptrend may resume from there and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.


- GBP/JPY - the uptrend accelrated and took out 200.00 minutes ago. The cross should now make a beeline for the 205.00 target.


- GBP/CHF - the cross found a new base at 2.2520, then eschewed a pullback to2.2580/75 -- found support at 1.2620. The rally should continue further -- make a new probe of 2.2780 top, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.



News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Dow-Jones, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com



Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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