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Trade the News - European Market Update: BOE Voted 7-2 to Hold in October European Market
Update: BOE Voted 7-2 to Hold in October
ยท *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
ยท SP Q3
Final GDP: Q/Q 0.7% v 0.7%e || Y/Y 3.8% v 3.8%e
ยท IT Nov Consumer
Confidence: 107.6 v 106.8e
ยท IT Sep Retail Sales: M/M -0.2% v 0.0%e
|| Prior revised from 0.2% to 0.3% || Y/Y -0.6% v 0.5%e
ยท UK BOE
Minutes show a vote of 7-2 to hold rates in October
ยท Comments from
the minutes coupled with the recent economic data, as well as the August
quarterly inflation report add to the probability of an interest rate cut
ยท *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
ยท BOE Gieve: There
may still be bad news to come in the financial markets
ยท BOE Gieve: Some markets are still very illiquid; Could
see more tightening in money markets by the end of the year
ยท GE Eco Advisor Bofinger: ECB should prevent the Euro
from strengthening further [press]
ยท GE BDB Association: Companies
seen coping with the strong Euro; No reason for the ECB to cut rates
ยท GE BDB Association: ECB's next move will be a cut; No move seen
ยท GE BDB Association: Economic growth forecasts remain
ยท French Business Chief: French and German firms are
increasingly concerned on the Euro FX rate
ยท French Business Chief:
G8 needs to address the FX issue in Japan
ยท BOE Minutes:
Blanchflower, and Gieve voted to cut rates by 25bps
ยท BOE Minutes:
Difficult to gauge the impact of credit tightening
ยท BOE Minutes:
Majority: Waiting to analyze future economic data;
ยท BOE Minutes:
Majority: Early rate cut risks rising inflation, and wages
Minutes: Minority: Housing market is slowing; waiting to cut rates risks a
ยท OECD: US mortgage related losses could be as high
ยท OECD: The weaker Dollar is complicating international
ยท OECD: The credit squeeze may cause a more
protracted downturn in equities
ยท *** FIXED
ยท Fixed income futures are trading
higher in the session on continued concerns surrounding the subprime
situation. Long-gilts also gained support from the BOE minutes, which
seemed to add to the probability of a December rate cut.
currencies, carry trades continue to unwind as market participants
speculate about the possibility of FX intervention. The Usd fell to new
post World War II lows against the Franc, while the Euro made fresh all
times highs prior to the European open.
ยท On the commodity front,
crude oil is off of its best levels of the session, but remains within
range of the $100 mark. Spot gold is trading lower after breaking $800
ยท Overall the session can be characterized as quiet. The
general sentiment amongst market participants is once of uncertainty. On
the speaker front, uncertainty about the extent of subprime, and the war of
words over FX levels continue circulate.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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